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Despite the persistence of a strong job market, the conventional wisdom among business and academic economists forecasts a recession in 2023. Even as supply-chain disruptions fade, other inflationary pressures are proving more durable, most notably a tight labor market that has contributed to an... → Read More
No matter what happens, there is a cost to waiting. → Read More
While the Fed’s inflation fight could throw the economy into reverse, a mild slowdown now might help avoid a deeper downturn later.Inflation like this can’t last forever. How it will end is now the more salient question. Often it takes a recession to break inflation. Economist... → Read More
Consumers have a lot more control than the last time the economy was plagued by inflation. On-the-spot comparison shopping is just one way to play defense.I am fairly compulsive about always having my keys with me. But after a series of mishaps, I got locked out of my apartment last week. It was... → Read More
Faster price growth can become a self-fulfilling spiral and undermine the central bank’s credibility.After decades of rarely cracking 2%, inflation was up 5.3% year-over-year in August. This was unthinkable a few years ago, and it may get worse before it gets better. Ports, rails and trucks... → Read More
Many Americans feel as though they can’t get ahead: the costs of housing, health care, and education keep rising, while their income has not grown much. Income stagnation has become one of the most pressing policy issues. Regarding the degree to which income has stagnated, we often hear the... → Read More
My first exposure to finance was a high school class on markets where we were required to read Peter Lynch’s One up on Wall Street. About 25 years later, including many years of studying economics and finance, what we were taught about investing seems crazy to me: that good investing entails... → Read More
Suppose you’re 20 years old and you can either take a loan out to go to college or use that money to buy a house. Which is the better investment? Once, this question sounded like a no-brainer. College was the golden ticket in the modern economy, the clear path to a better standard of living.... → Read More
As student debt mounts, is a college degree still the best use of your money? → Read More
Why the narratives we embrace about our finances matter Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events, by Robert J. Shiller, Princeton University Press, 400 pages, $27.95 In October, David Leonhardt of The New York Times published an animated chart that was... → Read More
By some estimates, the world is short $400 trillion to pay for its aging population. → Read More
If one asset class stands out for its high prices and potential systemic risk, it's low-risk bonds issued by governments in the US and Europe. → Read More
New evidence suggests big chains are better for the economy than we previously thought. → Read More
The profession has faced a lot of criticism lately: some of it is fair, some of it is based on misunderstandings, and some of it is outright conspiracy theories. → Read More
Economics is predictably unpredictable, says Microsoft's co-founder in an interview. → Read More
Retiring ECB president Mario Draghi is sticking with his inflation target. → Read More
The European Central Bank meeting tomorrow is one of the most significant in recent memory—not because it may cut rates, but because it might not. → Read More
Widespread share ownership has implications for the broader economy. → Read More
The bond market gets exciting. → Read More
Bad financial luck has come for the Baby Boomers. → Read More