Jay Cost
Washington Post
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Past articles by Jay:
Sorry, Senator Corker. You missed your chance to do the right thing about Trump.
He gave the president the benefit of the doubt, even when there wasn’t any. → Read More
An Open Letter to Mitt Romney
Dear Governor Romney, I write to you not as a fellow conservative, not as a fellow partisan, but as a citizen of our republic. You have served your nation admirably for many years and by any ordinary standard are entitled to a happy retirement. But these are extraordinary times, and your nation still has need of your service. I respectfully implore you to run for president as an independent… → Read More
The Race for Republican Delegates: Where Do We Stand?
According to Nate Silver, the current delegate count for the Republican nomination is: Trump 391 delegates (43 percent of total) Cruz 304 (34 percent) Rubio 148 (16 percent) Kasich 37 (4 percent) Unbound/Other Candidate 26 (3 percent) This is an accurate account of the contests so far. But one could add the fact that a solid number of delegates will be going to the Cleveland convention unbound.… → Read More
The Outlook for Super Tuesday
With Super Tuesday just days away, Donald Trump is set to win a large number of contests. However, the delegate math means it is unlikely he will walk away with so many delegates as to make him unstoppable. Unlike South Carolina, which allocated its delegates by a winner-take-all system, Super Tuesday states have variations of proportional allocation systems. Some are strictly… → Read More
Polling Since the South Carolina Debate
Donald Trump looks to be cruising to a solid victory in the South Carolina primary, but there is evidence that his debate performance might have hurt him—at least on the margins. Seven pollsters* have conducted surveys that were in the field mostly after the debate, and the average result is: Trump: 33 Cruz: 18 Rubio: 17 Kasich: 10 Bush: 10 Carson: 7 Compare that to the five polls that were… → Read More
Why Can't Kasich Win?
Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary, but his coalition in New Hampshire does not appear much larger than what Pat Buchanan garnered in 1992 or 1996. He is pulling in the same basic coalition, which had a ceiling of about 30 percent nationwide. John Kasich’s second place finish is much more interesting to me. Kasich hit the upside surprise in New Hampshire tonight. The polls had him… → Read More
Jeb Bush's Terrible Campaign Finance Idea
At a country club (of all places!) in Nashua, New Hampshire, on Monday, Jeb Bush articulated what might be the worst idea for campaign finance reform I have ever heard. John McCormack has the details: The ideal thing--situation--would be to overturn the Supreme Court ruling that allows for effectively unregulated money independent and regulated money for the campaign. I would turn that on its… → Read More
It's The Incentives, Stupid
The political “establishment has become a kind of four-letter word, a catchall derogation of those who maintain the status quo in Washington. Alas, this phrase has come to confuse more than clarify. A political establishment has always existed. That's because it is quite necessary to have one. Even in the earliest years of our history, most political leaders were either military commanders… → Read More
The View from 1787
Donald Trump sits atop national polls for the Republican nomination, with supporters arguing he is precisely the person to fight special interests, return power to the people, and “make America great again. If he were alive today, James Madison would surely disagree. The writings of the nation's fourth president offer several strong admonitions against rallying to the Trump banner. Judging the… → Read More
Yes, Trump Can Be Defeated
In a three-part series on the Trump phenomenon, Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics argues that Donald Trump is the avatar of working-class anxieties within the Republican party. As he sees it, Trump is potentially “a more credible Santorum/Huckabee candidate. That's why poll after poll shows, he draws his strength from the same sorts of downscale, less-educated voters with loose ties to the… → Read More
Jeb Bush's Solipsistic Campaign
Over the weekend, Stephen Hayes pointed out that the Jeb Bush campaign has basically “cleared the way for Donald Trump by spending an inordinate sum against Marco Rubio. Yesterday, from John McCormack, we saw the extent to which this effort has gone—an attack on Rubio's use of a Florida GOP credit card. It's worth taking a step back and examining the bigger picture, to ask: what exactly is Team… → Read More
Why Hasn't the GOP Stopped Trump?
Donald Trump is not a conservative. He is only recently a Republican. He is losing in the polls to Hillary Clinton. He is mean and abrasive, and he manifestly lacks the temperament to be president of the United States. So why is the Republican party letting him skate by? Indeed, there are reports that some in the “establishment are sidling up to the real estate mogul. This question has been on… → Read More
Trump v. Cruz: Game On!
The battle between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz has finally begun. A few thoughts on this long-anticipated fight: (1) The timing is noteworthy. Whereas other candidates—above all Jeb Bush—have been trying, with limited success, to hit Trump for some time, Cruz has held back. Here's why: The decision-making process of primary and caucus voters must dictate the timing; they are only now beginning to… → Read More
2016 Forecast: Fog
After nearly a year of buildup, the Republican nomination process is finally set to begin. What do we know about how things will unfold? Precious little, as it happens. This is the most open Republican nomination battle in a generation, if not more. The large number of candidates, the unpredictable behavior of Donald Trump, and the lack of a clear frontrunner all conspire to make this race as… → Read More
The Triumph of the Outsiders
With just over a month until the Iowa caucuses, the Republican nomination field is taking clearer form. Of the original 17 candidates, only 4 can be said to remain in top contention: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Ben Carson. What to make of these candidates, and what does their preeminence tell us about the Republican party as it heads into the presidential election year? Of the top… → Read More
The Rules Matter
The Trump phenomenon continues apace, immune to the boorishness and ignorance of its avatar. It does not seem to matter what Donald Trump says or does—he continues to lead the Republican field by a wide margin. Often overlooked when scrutinizing Trump's dominance are the rules of the Republican nomination process. These are not a sufficient condition for Trump's ascent, but they are certainly a… → Read More
The Disloyal Opposition
If you were to acquire political information only from former and current officials of the Obama administration, you would think the Republican party is borderline seditious. President Obama himself regularly castigates Republican motives as un-American. Last week, in a typical tweet aimed at Republican presidential candidates, he said, “Slamming the door in the face of refugees would betray our… → Read More
She Botched It
The mainstream media, liberal pundits, and even some conservative analysts gave Hillary Clinton high marks for her performance at the October 22 hearing of the House Select Committee on Benghazi, and they scored congressional Republicans negatively. The day was widely deemed a huge win for Clinton and a crucial moment in turning her campaign around. → Read More
She Botched It
The mainstream media, liberal pundits, and even some conservative analysts gave Hillary Clinton high marks for her performance at the October 22 hearing of the House Select Committee on Benghazi, and they scored congressional Republicans negatively. The day was widely deemed a huge win for Clinton and a crucial moment in turning her campaign around. → Read More
She Botched It
The mainstream media, liberal pundits, and even some conservative analysts gave Hillary Clinton high marks for her performance at the October 22 hearing of the House Select Committee on Benghazi, and they scored congressional Republicans negatively. The day was widely deemed a huge win for Clinton and a crucial moment in turning her campaign around. → Read More