Martin Langfield
ReutersBreakingviews
New York, NY, United States
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Past articles by Martin:
Argentina’s Macri may yet survive his own policies – Breakingviews
The president’s support is sinking as the peso dives, inflation persists and poverty rises. Populist nemesis Cristina Fernandez wants to run in October elections, spooking investors. But Macri’s IMF-endorsed policies, even if softened, are likely to endure. He may yet do so too. → Read More
Brazil’s Bolsonaro hits pension bull’s-eye – Breakingviews
The new president’s plan to trim $270 bln from ruinous social-security spending is smartly aimed. Shoot much higher and supporters and lawmakers might balk entirely; much lower and foreign investors might not take him seriously. Now the congressional haggling begins. → Read More
Vale disaster threatens Brazil’s deregulation push – Breakingviews
A lethal dam collapse wiped $18 billion off the mining company’s value. It may also derail President Jair Bolsonaro’s plans to bolster business by rolling back environmental and other regulations. Angry Brazilians and skittish lawmakers may want to go in the opposite direction. → Read More
U.S. intervention in Venezuela carries retro risk – Breakingviews
Uncle Sam is sanctioning state oil firm PDVSA in a bid to spur regime change. President Maduro’s woeful record has united much of the hemisphere in demanding his ouster. But a U.S. history of regional meddling means the Trump administration must avoid arrogance to retain allies. → Read More
Brazil will get energy mostly right; Mexico won’t – Breakingviews
New regimes of opposing ideologies in Latam’s two biggest economies will wrestle with balancing 1970s-style nationalism against the need to open up to foreign and private capital to exploit their oil and gas resources. Brazil’s far-right president-elect has the better prospects. → Read More
Mexico’s revolutionaries risk spoiling the party – Breakingviews
President-elect López Obrador doesn’t take office until next month, but he and his fellow leftists have already upset markets with moves to nix an airport project and rein in bank fees. Such fumbles could help guide Brazil’s far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro as he nears power too. → Read More
Investors put excess faith in new Brazil president – Breakingviews
Markets approve of far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro’s election victory. Yet he’s only a recent convert to free-market policies and has odd ideas about the rule of law. Perhaps he can stick to his guns and dragoon Congress to fix the country’s fiscal woes. But it’s a risky wager. → Read More
In need of cool head, Brazil braces for opposite – Breakingviews
Far-right ex-army man Jair Bolsonaro looks set to win Sunday’s presidential runoff, riding voter anger over corruption, violence and economic stagnation. Prioritizing pension reform over strongman tactics would better address the nation’s ills. You can’t shoot fiscal deficits. → Read More
Brazil choice is how far back to wind the clock – Breakingviews
Elections on Sunday will probably send Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right nostalgist for military rule, and Fernando Haddad, a surrogate for jailed leftist icon Lula, into a two-man presidential runoff. Either would serve Brazilians best by letting his angriest backers down. → Read More
Latam’s market-friendly shift is at a parlous pass – Breakingviews
Argentina’s faltering growth imperils President Macri’s reforms. Mexico has delayed oil liberalization. Brazil’s main pro-business presidential candidate looks weak. Losing fiscal nous and foreign investment in the region’s biggest economies would hit business and the poor alike. → Read More
Messianic AMLO may give Mexico what it least needs – Breakingviews
Presidential front-runner López Obrador has pledged to root out corruption and dampen drug violence while boosting the economy and lifting up the poor. That may win him Sunday’s election, but such goals require strong institutions and fiscal nous. His rise may bring the opposite. → Read More
Review: The other side of Trumpismo – Breakingviews
Mexico and the U.S. share complex, ever-deeper ties that contradict Donald Trump’s hostile rhetoric, Andrew Selee writes in “Vanishing Frontiers.” Bicultural businesses, movies and even co-hosting soccer’s 2026 World Cup are better signposts to the future than nationalist rants. → Read More
Colombia’s likely leader less safe than he looks – Breakingviews
Conservative Ivan Duque leads polls ahead of Sunday’s presidential runoff. He is the more markets-friendly candidate, though his animosity to a peace deal with FARC rebels and Colombians’ distrust of business and political elites may spell discord if he wins, spooking investors. → Read More
Argentina’s road to normality hits more zigzags – Breakingviews
The replacement of the central bank chief should help stabilize the peso, along with IMF assistance, despite Thursday’s 6 percent drop. It’s all part of President Macri’s long haul to turn his country’s economic pathology into more mainstream travails. It won’t be smooth going. → Read More
Argentina’s $50 bln IMF deal has a year to work – Breakingviews
President Macri, like Cardinal Mazarin’s preferred generals, has been lucky as well as bold so far in his efforts to fix Latin America’s No. 3 economy. With elections not due until late 2019 and the deal shielding social spending, he has time to beat opponents’ IMF-phobia - just. → Read More
Petrobras CEO exit weakens Brazil’s adult oversight – Breakingviews
Pedro Parente had been a successful boss of the state oil giant until it cut diesel prices to placate striking truckers. Now his tenure looks more like a blip than the end of traditional government meddling. Petrobras’ share-price plunge is a warning about how the economy is run. → Read More
Cuba rings changes while trying to stay the same – Breakingviews
Raul Castro's coming handover of Cuba's presidency is an effort to prolong beyond his own life span the communist revolution he built with late brother Fidel. Trying to modernize could also destroy it, though. And with neighbor Venezuela getting less able to provide cheap oil, economic reform can't wait. → Read More
Venezuela’s crypto-currency reeks of snake oil – Breakingviews
President Maduro says early sales of its oil-backed petro raised $735 mln. Investing in the virtual coinage is tantamount to a bet on the increasingly autocratic administration’s probity, transparency and basic grasp of economic reality. Good luck with that. → Read More
Chile reinforces Latin American pro-business pivot – Breakingviews
Billionaire Sebastian Piñera won the copper-rich nation's presidential election with a stronger showing than expected. That will lend succor to like-minded leaders in Argentina, Brazil and Peru for whom fiscal discipline is proving a long slog and graft allegations a danger. → Read More
Venezuela’s Maduro enters alternate reality – Breakingviews
The OPEC member's socialist leader wants to restructure the ailing country's foreign debt, putting an alleged drug trafficker in charge of working out how. U.S. sanctions make any refinancing virtually impossible. But even default might not drive the hapless president from power. → Read More