James Picerno, Seeking Alpha

James Picerno

Seeking Alpha

Piscataway, NJ, United States

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Past articles by James:

Nobody Expects A Banking Crisis, But...

Banking is inherently unstable. Most of the time that’s not obvious and banking operations run smoothly. → Read More

The Best Solution For Reducing Noise In Recession-Risk Estimates

US recession risk is high, unless it’s not. Forecasting is hard, but almost every effort to project data benefits by combining estimates from several models. → Read More

Markets Continue To Flirt With Risk-On Signals

There’s no shortage of threats lurking, ranging from inflation, elevated interest rates that may go higher still, and various geopolitical threats. → Read More

Will The Labor Market Inoculate The U.S. Against Recession?

US economic activity looks strong or weak, depending on the data sets you choose to craft a narrative. Click here to read more. → Read More

Major Asset Classes: February 2023 Performance Review

Although every corner of risk assets took a hit last month, most asset classes still post gains year to date. → Read More

High Beta And Small Value Maintain 2023 Lead For Equity Factors

Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF has pulled back modestly from its Feb. 2 peak. High dividend yield and low volatility have joined momentum as year-to-date losers in recent weeks. → Read More

Is It Time To Rethink Stock-Bond Allocations After Rate Hikes?

The case for raising equity allocations when interest rates were close to zero was easy. After a year of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the calculus is more complicated. → Read More

Desperately Seeking Yield: February 23, 2023

The most conspicuous shift is in cash and cash equivalents, such as 3-month Treasury bills, which currently yield 4.84% as of Feb. 22. → Read More

Oversold-Overbought Watch: S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Index has rebounded sharply off its previous low in October, closing up 14% on Feb. 17 since October’s trough. The market could continue to rally, of course. → Read More

Strong Rebound In Retail Sales Gives Fed More Room To Lift Rates

Economists were expecting a sharp recovery in US retail spending in January, but the actual number blew past even the most optimistic forecast. → Read More

10-Year Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 15 February 2023

Despite conditions that appear to offer support for a higher US 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark rate remains moderately below its recent peak. → Read More

Foreign Stocks Are Hot Again. Will It Last?

Diversifying into global markets ex-US has been a frustrating choice for asset allocation for much of the past decade. So far in the new year, Europe is the leader. → Read More

Will This Year's Recovery In U.S. Bonds Continue?

It’s premature to read this year’s rally in the bond market as a signal that it’s clear sailing from here on out for fixed-income securities. → Read More

Is It Risk-On Again?

This year’s rebound in asset prices around the world suggests that investor sentiment is shifting to risk-on after a year of playing defense. → Read More

High Beta, Small Cap Value Still Lead Equity Factors In 2023

US stock market rally this year continues to be led by high-beta stocks, which are outperforming broad market by a wide margin, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Monday’s (Feb 6) close. → Read More

Treasury Market Predicts Fed Rate Hikes Are Done

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this week and Chairman Jerome Powell says more hikes are coming. The bond market disagrees. → Read More

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes

The long-run performance outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in January, reaching an 6% annualized forecast, based on the average estimate for three models. → Read More

Major Asset Classes: January 2023 Performance Review

Global markets roared back to life in January, led by US real estate shares. The only slice of the major asset classes that lost ground last month: commodities, based on a set of proxy ETFs. → Read More

Deep-Value ETF Report: January 31, 2023

The energy sector has been red-hot for much of the past year, but there are still pockets in this corner that remain battered, at least in relative terms. → Read More

Is U.S. Recession Risk High, Low... Or Both?

Yesterday’s weekly update on initial jobless claims suggests that the labor market will continue expanding. → Read More