James Picerno
Seeking Alpha
Piscataway, NJ, United States
Contact James
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Recent articles by James:
Peak Inflation Watch: August 12, 2022
The latest inflation numbers for the US suggest that the recent surge in pricing pressure has peaked, maybe. The bigger risk is that consumer inflation remains elevated. → Read More
10-Year Treasury Yield 'Fair Value' Estimate: August 11, 2022
The 10-year rate recently peaked at roughly 3.5% in June. As of yesterday’s trading (Aug. 10), the yield is moderately lower at 2.78%. → Read More
Predicting Risk: Not Easy, But Easier Relative To Return, Part II
Predicting market risk is easier than predicting return. Read more. → Read More
High Dividend Yield And Value Are 2022's Top U.S. Equity Factors
After a strong bounce this year, the relative strength of value vs. growth has reversed course rather sharply. Read more. → Read More
U.S. Personal Income Barely Recovered In The Economic Expansion
US economic growth is slipping & a new recession may be near. Read more. → Read More
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes
The long-term expected return for the GMI remains moderately below the index’s trailing realized 10-year performance through July, based on the average of three forecasting models. → Read More
Major Asset Classes: July 2022 Performance Review
The majority of the major asset classes rebounded in July, providing relief from an extended run of red ink, based on a set of proxy ETFs. → Read More
Arguing Over Recession Definitions
US gross domestic product fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Read more here. → Read More
Peak Inflation Watch: July 28, 2022
The inflation battle continues. The Federal Reserve yesterday raised interest rates by a hefty 75 basis points, again, in a renewed effort to tame inflation’s recent surge. → Read More
Energy Holds On To Hefty Lead For U.S. Equity Sectors In 2022
Energy stocks have stumbled in recent weeks, but this sector is showing signs of regaining its mojo. Read more. → Read More
Is There A Case For A Return Of Disinflation/Deflation?
It’s all about high inflation at the moment. The Federal Reserve is certainly focused on inflation risk and is set to raise interest rates again in July 27’s policy announcement. → Read More
New Signs Of Rising But Not Yet Decisive U.S. Recession Risk
Three economic reports released on Thursday point to a rising possibility that a recession is near for the US economy. Read more here. → Read More
Using Multiple Yield Curves To Predict Recessions
The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Read more. → Read More
10-Year Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: July 19, 2022
US headline inflation continues to set new four-decade highs, and the Federal Reserve continues to signal that it will continue raising interest rates. → Read More
U.S. Bonds Rallied Last Week, Offering Ballast Vs. Losses Elsewhere
iShares TIPS Bond ETF posted the strongest gain - 1.0% - in last week’s trading through July 15, based on a set of ETFs representing the major asset classes. Read more. → Read More
S&P 500 Risk Profile: July 15, 2022
The US stock market has stabilized in recent weeks, but the downside bias still appears intact. Market valuation has declined recently. Read more here. → Read More
Peak Inflation Watch: July 14, 2022
Yesterday’s US consumer inflation data for June surprised analysts with a hotter-than-expected report. → Read More
Is Leadership For U.S. Equities Vulnerable In A High-Risk World?
The performance edge for American stocks is no longer absolute, at least so far in 2022. Read more here. → Read More
How To Estimate Recession Risk In Real Time
Recession risk is rising, which inevitably leads to a discussion and debate about what exactly defines such an event. Read more here. → Read More
Monitoring Investment Trends With ETF Pairs: July 7, 2022
Risk-off sentiment continues to dominate market behavior. In other words, nothing much has changed vs. recent history. → Read More