James Picerno, Seeking Alpha

James Picerno

Seeking Alpha

Piscataway, NJ, United States

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Recent articles by James:

Peak Inflation Watch: August 12, 2022

The latest inflation numbers for the US suggest that the recent surge in pricing pressure has peaked, maybe. The bigger risk is that consumer inflation remains elevated. → Read More

10-Year Treasury Yield 'Fair Value' Estimate: August 11, 2022

The 10-year rate recently peaked at roughly 3.5% in June. As of yesterday’s trading (Aug. 10), the yield is moderately lower at 2.78%. → Read More

Predicting Risk: Not Easy, But Easier Relative To Return, Part II

Predicting market risk is easier than predicting return. Read more. → Read More

High Dividend Yield And Value Are 2022's Top U.S. Equity Factors

After a strong bounce this year, the relative strength of value vs. growth has reversed course rather sharply. Read more. → Read More

U.S. Personal Income Barely Recovered In The Economic Expansion

US economic growth is slipping & a new recession may be near. Read more. → Read More

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes

The long-term expected return for the GMI remains moderately below the index’s trailing realized 10-year performance through July, based on the average of three forecasting models. → Read More

Major Asset Classes: July 2022 Performance Review

The majority of the major asset classes rebounded in July, providing relief from an extended run of red ink, based on a set of proxy ETFs. → Read More

Arguing Over Recession Definitions

US gross domestic product fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Read more here. → Read More

Peak Inflation Watch: July 28, 2022

The inflation battle continues. The Federal Reserve yesterday raised interest rates by a hefty 75 basis points, again, in a renewed effort to tame inflation’s recent surge. → Read More

Energy Holds On To Hefty Lead For U.S. Equity Sectors In 2022

Energy stocks have stumbled in recent weeks, but this sector is showing signs of regaining its mojo. Read more. → Read More

Is There A Case For A Return Of Disinflation/Deflation?

It’s all about high inflation at the moment. The Federal Reserve is certainly focused on inflation risk and is set to raise interest rates again in July 27’s policy announcement. → Read More

New Signs Of Rising But Not Yet Decisive U.S. Recession Risk

Three economic reports released on Thursday point to a rising possibility that a recession is near for the US economy. Read more here. → Read More

Using Multiple Yield Curves To Predict Recessions

The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Read more. → Read More

10-Year Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: July 19, 2022

US headline inflation continues to set new four-decade highs, and the Federal Reserve continues to signal that it will continue raising interest rates. → Read More

U.S. Bonds Rallied Last Week, Offering Ballast Vs. Losses Elsewhere

iShares TIPS Bond ETF posted the strongest gain - 1.0% - in last week’s trading through July 15, based on a set of ETFs representing the major asset classes. Read more. → Read More

S&P 500 Risk Profile: July 15, 2022

The US stock market has stabilized in recent weeks, but the downside bias still appears intact. Market valuation has declined recently. Read more here. → Read More

Peak Inflation Watch: July 14, 2022

Yesterday’s US consumer inflation data for June surprised analysts with a hotter-than-expected report. → Read More

Is Leadership For U.S. Equities Vulnerable In A High-Risk World?

The performance edge for American stocks is no longer absolute, at least so far in 2022. Read more here. → Read More

How To Estimate Recession Risk In Real Time

Recession risk is rising, which inevitably leads to a discussion and debate about what exactly defines such an event. Read more here. → Read More

Monitoring Investment Trends With ETF Pairs: July 7, 2022

Risk-off sentiment continues to dominate market behavior. In other words, nothing much has changed vs. recent history. → Read More