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Banking is inherently unstable. Most of the time that’s not obvious and banking operations run smoothly. → Read More
US recession risk is high, unless it’s not. Forecasting is hard, but almost every effort to project data benefits by combining estimates from several models. → Read More
There’s no shortage of threats lurking, ranging from inflation, elevated interest rates that may go higher still, and various geopolitical threats. → Read More
US economic activity looks strong or weak, depending on the data sets you choose to craft a narrative. Click here to read more. → Read More
Although every corner of risk assets took a hit last month, most asset classes still post gains year to date. → Read More
Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF has pulled back modestly from its Feb. 2 peak. High dividend yield and low volatility have joined momentum as year-to-date losers in recent weeks. → Read More
The case for raising equity allocations when interest rates were close to zero was easy. After a year of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the calculus is more complicated. → Read More
The most conspicuous shift is in cash and cash equivalents, such as 3-month Treasury bills, which currently yield 4.84% as of Feb. 22. → Read More
The S&P 500 Index has rebounded sharply off its previous low in October, closing up 14% on Feb. 17 since October’s trough. The market could continue to rally, of course. → Read More
Economists were expecting a sharp recovery in US retail spending in January, but the actual number blew past even the most optimistic forecast. → Read More
Despite conditions that appear to offer support for a higher US 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark rate remains moderately below its recent peak. → Read More
Diversifying into global markets ex-US has been a frustrating choice for asset allocation for much of the past decade. So far in the new year, Europe is the leader. → Read More
It’s premature to read this year’s rally in the bond market as a signal that it’s clear sailing from here on out for fixed-income securities. → Read More
This year’s rebound in asset prices around the world suggests that investor sentiment is shifting to risk-on after a year of playing defense. → Read More
US stock market rally this year continues to be led by high-beta stocks, which are outperforming broad market by a wide margin, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Monday’s (Feb 6) close. → Read More
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this week and Chairman Jerome Powell says more hikes are coming. The bond market disagrees. → Read More
The long-run performance outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in January, reaching an 6% annualized forecast, based on the average estimate for three models. → Read More
Global markets roared back to life in January, led by US real estate shares. The only slice of the major asset classes that lost ground last month: commodities, based on a set of proxy ETFs. → Read More
The energy sector has been red-hot for much of the past year, but there are still pockets in this corner that remain battered, at least in relative terms. → Read More
Yesterday’s weekly update on initial jobless claims suggests that the labor market will continue expanding. → Read More