Paul Haenle
ChinaFile
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Past articles by Paul:
How Will the EU Navigate U.S.-China Tensions?
Over the past few years, Europe and the United States have each approached China’s rise differently. Washington has moved to reduce its economic reliance on Beijing while castigating its increasingly assertive global stance. Brussels, on the other hand, has tried to insulate its business ties with China from its concerns about Chinese policies and ambitions. Europe and China → Read More
China-Russia Relations at the Dawn of the Biden Era
While U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations have steadily deteriorated, China-Russia cooperation has continued to strengthen. Although both nations have found a common adversary in the United States, any divergence of Russian or Chinese interests could create roadblocks to the two countries’ warming relations. Given China’s increasing economic and political clout, how will → Read More
U.S.-China Relations 2020: Coronavirus and Elections
China is facing growing international scrutiny due to its initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak. Countries are increasingly questioning the motives underlying Beijing’s recent international aid efforts, and there is growing concern over developments in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and Hong Kong. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Xie Tao, Dean of the School of International… → Read More
China-India Relations One Year After the Wuhan Summit
In May 2018, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in Wuhan for an informal summit that many say helped reset the relationship following the Doklam crisis. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Rudra Chaudhuri, Director of Carnegie India, and Srinath Raghavan, Senior Fellow at Carnegie India, about the state of China-India relations one year after Wuhan, as well as the… → Read More
Graham Allison on Avoiding the Thucydides Trap
Allison says the Thucydides Trap is the best framework to understand why there is potential for conflict between the United States and China. As China grew stronger, the U.S. failed to recognize Beijing would increasingly assert its own vision for the international order, thereby challenging the American-led global system. China now represents both a strategic rival and partner for the United… → Read More
China’s Shift to a More Assertive Foreign Policy
Shi points to two important turning points in China’s shift to a more assertive foreign policy: the 2008 global financial crisis, which made it clear that China’s economic development was an important engine for global growth; and Xi Jinping’s rise to power, which signaled China’s more ambitious international approach. → Read More
Is the U.S. Driving China and Russia Together?
As U.S. relations with China and Russia deteriorate under the Trump administration, bilateral relations between Moscow and Beijing grow stronger. A “Cold War” between the U.S. and China has not yet begun, Trenin and Gabuev agree, but the two sides are increasingly confrontational and risk shifting from competition to rivalry. → Read More
How Will China Respond to Global Concerns about its Trade and Economic Policies?
Official Chinese narratives about the U.S.-China trade war have not included Chinese reflection or discussion of what role China’s own policies have played in creating trade tensions. Many of the concerns on structural issues, such as market access, intellectual property rights, forced technology transfer, and China’s industrial policies, are of common concern for the international community.… → Read More
The U.S. and China as Peer Competitors in the Indo-Pacific
The Trump administration has taken a more confrontational approach to bilateral relations with China, implementing tariffs on nearly half of all Chinese exports to the U.S. and treating Beijing as a strategic competitor across many aspects of the relationship. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Abigail Grace, a Research Associate in the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New… → Read More
North Korea Diplomacy and U.S.-China Relations
Paul Haenle joined Kaiser Kuo to discuss next steps for DPRK diplomacy and tensions between the United States and China over trade, Taiwan, and the Belt and Road Initiative. Haenle shared his experience working as White House representative to the six-party talks in the Bush administration, and said China’s relations with North Korea reached a historic low in 2017 due to the leadership’s… → Read More
U.S.-China Tensions over Trade and Technology
Chen says deteriorating bilateral relations are due to both the Trump administration’s trade policies and to a growing U.S. consensus that foreign policy toward China should be reevaluated. The Chinese government’s view that industrial policy is a legitimate tool to promote economic growth stands in stark contrast to the U.S. position that market forces should play a leading role in economic… → Read More
Made in China 2025
China’s “Made in China 2025” policy to upgrade its industry plays a central role in the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. Paul Haenle sat down with Paul Triolo, practice head of Geo-technology at the Eurasia Group, to discuss how the Chinese government initiative impacts and challenges the U.S. and global economies, and how best to formulate policies in response. → Read More
Foreign Policy Experts on the Singapore Summit and What Comes Next
Despite the pageantry of the Singapore summit, the outcomes remain uncertain. → Read More
A World in Transition
As the world is in the midst of considerable uncertainty and transition, Ambassador William J. Burns points to the emergence of rising powers like China and India, challenges to regional order in the Middle East, and revolutions in new technologies as driving changes in the international landscape and reshaping the global economy, and he argues that international institutions and alliances must… → Read More
What Comes Next after the Panmunjom Summit?
Kim Jong-un became the first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korea at the Panmunjom Summit in April 2018, setting the stage for President Trump’s meeting with Kim in June. Just days after the summit, Paul Haenle spoke with Tong Zhao, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program based at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, about the significance of the Kim-Moon meeting and its… → Read More
The Rise of Populism and Implications for China
The rise of populism in Europe and the United States has had a pronounced impact on domestic politics and foreign policy, as seen in Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. In China, leaders are unsettled by the nationalist and anti-globalization sentiments that often accompany populist movements and run counter to China’s interests. Beijing has also had to adapt its policies to the European… → Read More
More than a Belt, More than a Road
Since its announcement in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative has grown from an idea centered on connectivity and infrastructure development into a global strategy bolstering China’s influence and economic diplomacy. → Read More
Does China Want the Koreas to Reconcile?
This Friday, April 27, the South Korean and North Korean leaders will meet in the demilitarized zone dividing their estranged countries to discuss improving relations and possibly even formally ending the Korean War, which has continued in the form of an often tense and fragile armistice since the cessation of combat in 1953. This inter-Korean summit, the first since 2007, signifies closer ties… → Read More
The Corrections Needed in the U.S.-China Relationship
Stephen Hadley, former national security advisor to President George W. Bush, argues that the United States took false comfort in China’s hide-and-bide strategy and failed to recognize that China would increasingly assert itself as it became more comfortable operating in the international system. He argues the United States needs to be more realistic about how the U.S.-China relationship will… → Read More
What’s Next for Commercial Diplomacy with China?
As the chief commercial advocate for U.S. businesses in policymaking, the Department of Commerce plays a crucial role in the U.S.-China trade and economic relationship. In the 99th episode of the China in the World Podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Penny Pritzker, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce under the Obama administration and founder and Chairman of PSP Capital, to discuss how the Department of… → Read More