William Bowe
Crikey.com.au
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Past articles by William:
If the polls are wrong, it will be their worst performance in 40 years — or since last time
The pollsters are predicting a Joe Biden win in the 2020 US election against Donald Trump. But they were wrong in 2016. → Read More
Palaszczuk's popularity and performance could see Labor defy mood for change
If the polls are correct and Labor pulls off a narrow win in Queensland tomorrow, the election will be remembered as one in which the actual campaign period made a difference. → Read More
The death of populism? Kiwi and ACT elections signal tough times for ‘disruptors’
The NZ election and ACT election results show a renewed support for the left. But how much can we really read into it? → Read More
General election soothsayers shouldn’t divine much from Eden-Monaro
What does the result of the Eden-Monaro byelection tell us about the fortunes of the Liberal and Labor parties going forward? → Read More
Why are the Greens preferencing Labor last in this NT byelection?
It's almost without precedent for the Greens to actively tilt the scales in the conservatives' favour. → Read More
Polling in crisis: Newspoll is back, but the election result casts doubt on its analysis
Newspoll has placed the Coalition soundly ahead in its first analysis since the shock 2019 federal election result. But can we believe it? → Read More
Senate preferences leave the left in tatters
Through Senate preferences, the Coalition has achieved a voting bloc so solid it may not even have to dirty its hands with One Nation. → Read More
Labor’s religious problem isn’t going away any time soon
Winning back religious voters will do more for Labor's chances of forming government than you may think. → Read More
2019 Federal Election: Why poll numbers have election-watchers concerned
You might think that unanimity in the results of multiple two party preferred polls would mean they must be accurate, but you'd be wrong. → Read More
Poll Bludger: why politicians want to cast doubt on early voting
Politicians in the 2019 federal election have a strong motivation to cast doubts on the democratic merits of pre-poll voting. → Read More
Labor has a clear edge in the polls for the 2019 federal election
It is with good reason that Labor starts the campaign as short-priced favourites with the bookies, writes William Bowe. → Read More
NSW election: now that the results are in, what comes next?
Stagnating votes, plot twists, and dogs that failed to bark — an analysis of the weekend's election results. → Read More
Poll Bludger: hung parliament a real possibility in NSW state election
The only other likely outcome is an outright Coalition win, despite the problems Gladys Berejiklian has in regional areas. → Read More
Poll Bludger: Leadership rumours, a struggle in NSW keep the Nationals busy
As federal Nationals whisper of a pre-election leadership spill, the NSW branch has its own share of problems in the imminent state election. → Read More
The refugee medical transfer bill is not Scott Morrison's 'Tampa moment'
Forget the polls, it will take a massive reactivation of boat arrivals to spin the medivac bill loss to the Coalition's election advantage. → Read More
The independent wave rises, but washing out the Liberals won't be easy
More and more independents, like Zali Steggall, are announcing plans to challenge Liberal seats. Do they have a chance? → Read More
Greens devastated in Victorian upper house election results
The Greens have been almost completely removed from Victoria's upper house. But it's good news for Daniel Andrews' Labor. → Read More
Victorian election 2018: the seats that blew Matthew Guy out of the water
Some of the worst results for the Libs in the Victorian election were closely tied to the party's federal chaos. → Read More
Victorian election 2018: Frankston, Latrobe Valley, seats to watch in Saturday's poll
From Ripon to the Latrobe Valley: the places around Victoria we expect to be most hotly contested in Saturday's Victorian election. → Read More
While others abandon preference whispering, Victoria persists
The game of micro-party preference whispering is in ruder health than ever in Victoria, despite being dismantled elswhere. → Read More