Marcus Noland
Peterson Institute
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Past articles by Marcus:
European Union's new trade agenda
Ignacio Garcia Bercero, director of the European Commission Directorate-General for Trade, will present the European Union’s new trade policy agenda, including discussing how it compares to the Biden administration’s focus on crafting a foreign policy for the middle class and new thinking on WTO → Read More
Memo to the Biden administration on how to reinvigorate US alliances
Background: The position of Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment has existed in some form since 1946. → Read More
The short- and long-term costs to the United States of the Trump administration’s attempt to deport foreign students
On July 6, 2020, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced modifications to the Student and Exchange Visitor Program eliminating temporary exemptions for nonimmigrant students taking all classes online due to the COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in the fall 2020 semester. → Read More
Alliances Under Stress: South Korea, Japan and the US
Rising diplomatic tensions between South Korea and Japan are putting American security interests at risk. Yet the United States government appears detached, unable to facilitate a rapprochement between its two allies. This is a critical moment because a South Korea-Japan intelligence-sharing agreement, aimed at North Korea, is due to lapse on Friday, Nov. 22. The current imbroglio has its… → Read More
Automation, Labor Market Disruption, and Trade Policy
The upset election victory of Donald Trump in 2016 resulted from the unsettling social and economic changes in American society, not least the anxiety over job losses caused by technology and international trade competition. → Read More
Protectionism under Trump: Policy, Identity, and Anxiety
The 2016 presidential campaign of Republican candidate Donald J. Trump departed from a broad US consensus supporting open international trade policies with its emphasis on limits to immigration and international trade. → Read More
Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Intolerance, and the "First White President"
In 2016, the United States elected an avowedly protectionist president. This paper uses US county-level electoral data to examine this outcome. The hypothesis that support for protectionism was purely a response to globalization is rejected. → Read More
Trump Restrained
Some of the syntax was challenging, and the plug for his golf course in the speech before the National Assembly was tawdry. And we were disappointed to hear the focus on bilateral deficits and the trashing of the KORUS as a “bad deal.” → Read More
Writing About North Korea
I was recently invited to appear on a panel hosted by the Korea Economic Institute on media coverage of North Korea. Such invitations are ego-gratifying but then the anxiety sets in about actually having anything to say. But the prospect of public humiliation concentrates the mind. → Read More
A Game-theoretic Solution to the North Korea Problem
A couple of colleagues forwarded to my attention an interesting piece by University of Chicago professor Harald Uhlig. → Read More
Childhood Immunization and North Korean Refugees in China
While concerns over geopolitical tensions understandably dominate current attention to the Korean peninsula, a humanitarian crisis continues to fester. → Read More
Otto Warmbier, 1994-2017
Otto Warmbier, a 22 year-old University of Virginia student, died yesterday from injuries sustained while in detention in North Korea. → Read More
Probing Firm-level Sanctions Evasion
C4ADS has put out another fascinating report tracking individuals and firms in the North Korean sanctions evasion network. → Read More
North Korea Comments on Trump Impeachment Prospects
Earlier this week Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, carried a story stating that US President Donald Trump faced a growing likelihood of impe → Read More
Making Money off Mayhem
Using the stock market to assess the zeitgeist is inadvisable, but the blog queue is bare…so here goes. → Read More
Negotiating North Korea
This blog post about Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland's forthcoming book Hard Targets (available for pre-order now!) was originally published on the Stanford University Press blog on May 10, 2017. Following the Mar-a-Lago summit, President Trump touted his cooperation with President Xi Jinping on North Korea as a diplomatic win. In the weeks since the summit, the outlines of the… → Read More
Trump Administration Contemplates the North Korea Model
When President Trump indicated that he would be “honored” to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un everyone jumped to the conclusion that the President’s purpose was to negotiate a nuclear dea → Read More
President Moon Jae-in and Sunshine Policy 3.0
As ballots are being tallied, exit polls strongly suggest that progressive candidate Moon Jae-in will be the next President of the Republic of Korea with around 41 percent of the vote, beating out conservative Hong Joon-pyo and Ahn Cheol-soo who look to have garnered 23 percent and 22 percent, re → Read More
Non-Interference and Other Pieties
I have long advocated the abolition of South Korea’s National Security Law which grants the government extraordinary power to ban political speech. → Read More
China, Syria, North Korea, and the Trump Doctrine
Flexibility, aka "flip-flopping," is emerging as a trademark of Trump Administration policy. The Administration’s rapidly evolving stances toward China, Syria, and North Korea are a case in point. (And to be clear, flip-flopping isn't a categorical negative.) → Read More