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Tuesday's market rise absolutely ignores the macroeconomic picture.Coronavirus will push the third world to the brink of collapse.Markets have hardly begun to price in the moving of the global economy to the economic brink.Be careful, and only buy safe companies that produce commodities.Don't worry about buying at the bottom, be far more worried about buying on the wrong side of the bottom. → Read More
Markets can't agree on which companies will go bankrupt and therefore stocks sell off more than they should in a crash.Investors have begun to accept some truths about the virus, but remain skeptical on more catastrophic economic disturbances that are coming.That tells me that the bottom has yet to come, and I provide my current thinking on when and what to buy. → Read More
We are looking for someone to fill an upcoming gap in our business model. We are not exactly sure what you will be doing, but we are sure that our shareholders will love the idea that we have Data… → Read More
Why have index funds outperformed hedge funds over the last 10 years? Is it only a recent trend or a change in fundamentals? Index funds will continue to be the → Read More
A terminal price decline in oil is inevitable. Trends in EV cost, ICE efficiency, and driverless cars will cripple oil demand. The price decline we have seen wi → Read More
The European economy is growing at a healthy rate. France’s election and the reformist movement across Europe will pay dividends in the coming years. Everything → Read More
Chinese data surprised markets with a big jump in imports. Copper looks set to dig itself in at a near term high heading into a quiet month. Fundamentals remain → Read More
Low oil prices are severely damaging economies dependent on its revenue flows. Political risk is growing in major countries and could destabilize a large percen → Read More
Bitcoin is a conduit for criminal activity. As governments have shut down illicit money laundering schemes in the past, so it will with digital currencies. If c → Read More
China's Silk Road is one of the largest infrastructure projects of this century. A debt downgrade caused a stutter for copper, but the remainder of the supply/d → Read More
As an oil perma-bear, I believe an opportunity is coming to buy great companies at cheap prices. The market is on the cusp of capitulating to macro trends in U. → Read More
The ineffectiveness of price cuts could lead OPEC to enter into a radical policy of controlling the futures curve. Under such a policy OPEC would sell down oil → Read More
Copper prices have largely been driven by supply concerns over the past year. My thesis on copper was focused on declining ore bodies, lack of greenfield projec → Read More
Britain is threatening to walk away from Brexit negotiations. It is typically impossible to successfully threaten the other side of a negotiation when you are t → Read More
The investment world is bouncing from one “crisis” to the next. Fundamentals are turning up for much of the developed world. Concerns that we have passed the pe → Read More
Oil is up on talks of an extended cut from Russia and Saudi Arabia. The marginal cost of oil will continue to drive prices, and market forces will continue to s → Read More
The White House continues to deliver a steady stream of newsworthy stories. Markets look jittery, and some analysts are predicting an impending drop. This artic → Read More
Investors remain focused on smoke and mirrors from China. Waning supply may be delayed by new projects, but decaying ore bodies will inevitably push prices upwa → Read More
Exxon Mobil's capital expenditures have been increasing while cash flows have been decreasing.The majority of Exxon Mobil's oil finds have come from high cost r → Read More
In the second part of this series I discuss the prospects of an oil recovery and production cliff. Overproduction during hard times will result in oil assets be → Read More