Jonathan Portes
The Independent
United Kingdom
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Past articles by Jonathan:
Why are politicians unwilling to acknowledge the truth about migration?
There is general doom and gloom over the UK economy – but the latest figures are good news, writes Jonathan Portes → Read More
Ending free movement wasn’t meant to boost wages – are we now being proved wrong about Brexit?
Were our earlier estimates incorrect? My short answer is ‘more research is needed’. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some useful things we can say now → Read More
Rewriting the Treasury Green Book is about politics—not “levelling up”
Chancellor Rishi Sunak is reviewing the way his department assesses the value of new projects. But the changes are not aimed at fairly spreading funds → Read More
Why tax is actually taxing
Dividing up the UK’s revenue among all its nations is a tricky task → Read More
Why tax is actually taxing
Dividing up the UK’s revenue among all its nations is a tricky task → Read More
Why we must continue to spend after the pandemic to avoid another stagnant decade
According to the standard economic model, the government should raise taxes early and focus on tackling the Covid deficit. But that strategy would worsen the deprivation already caused by austerity → Read More
Brexit and Beyond: how the UK economy will fare outside the EU
The UK must take steps to avoid becoming a more inward-looking and less competitive economy after Brexit, UK in a Changing Europe's latest report has found → Read More
Here’s why the government’s refusal to increase sick pay is a false economy
Even conservative assumptions suggest a substantial increase in the generosity of government-financed Statutory Sick Pay for workers required or advised to self-isolate would “pay for itself” several times over → Read More
Why I was wrong to support winding down the furlough scheme
The government must now adjust to the reality of the economic position → Read More
A no-deal Brexit would be twice as damaging for the UK economy as coronavirus in the long term
Even if the pandemic is handled, we’ll still have the issue of reduced trade and foreign direct investment, as well as the resulting drag on productivity growth → Read More
Why the government’s latest Covid restrictions should horrify economists
No good economist would prioritise GDP at the expense of everything else. But that is what the government is doing with its new measures → Read More
The furlough scheme will end soon. What next?
It's tempting to believe that we should extend the furlough scheme beyond its anticipated end date in October. But that only delays the problem—and creates new issues → Read More
More austerity is precisely the wrong response to this crisis. What is the right one?
The absurd logic of austerity has been exposed but what economic policies should take its place? → Read More
And so the appalling human consequences of the austerity experiment become clear
George Osborne’s economic illiteracy left us exposed to this crisis → Read More
Foreign graduates and a rare triumph for sensible immigration policy
Theresa May’s draconian visa curbs have been reversed, not a moment too soon → Read More
I've researched how a no-deal Brexit will affect our economy. This is the answer — for now and decades in the future
Predictions about the economic impact of a no-deal Brexit have ranged from the apocalyptic to “no big deal.” Indeed, some fringe economists have even suggested that no deal would boost the UK economy. And while no credible analysis supports this view, there is huge uncertainty – particularly in the short term. → Read More
Twenty years on the national minimum wage is a straightforward good news story
There has been no discernible impact on employment despite early scaremongering → Read More
Spring statement: Hammond’s promise of a “deal dividend” is nothing short of absurd
It was a hollow promise from the chancellor in place of a proper strategy → Read More
How will next week’s Brexit votes impact the UK economy, jobs and wages?
Next week, a series of votes in parliament will determine the immediate course of events on Brexit. By next Friday, the UK will either have accepted the deal agreed between Theresa May and the EU; decided to request an extension of the Article 50 process; or we will heading for a no-deal Brexit on 29 March. → Read More
Why I bet £1000 that a no-deal Brexit will trigger recession
But hardline Leavers are always hesitant to put their money where their mouth is → Read More