Stephan Haggard
Peterson Institute
San Diego, CA, United States
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Past articles by Stephan:
What to Expect from the Trump-Kim Hanoi Summit
I recently joined Professor Ramon Pardo of King's College London in an episode of his Korea Chair podcast to discuss what to expect from the February 2019 summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. We talked about possible concessions and how domestic political pressures in the United States might influence the outcome. Listen to the podcast here. → Read More
Trump Restrained
Some of the syntax was challenging, and the plug for his golf course in the speech before the National Assembly was tawdry. And we were disappointed to hear the focus on bilateral deficits and the trashing of the KORUS as a “bad deal.” → Read More
Kim Jong Un and Ri Yong Ho Speak
This week, I have cycled through the UN speeches of Prime Minister Abe (LINK) and Pre → Read More
Sanctions: Things Are About to Get Interesting. Really Interesting.
Marc Noland and I have literally written hundreds of posts about sanctions. With respect to North Korea, they have been written with declining conviction. → Read More
Is it Legal for President Trump to Order an Attack on North Korea?
Strategic and political constraints weigh most heavily on whether the Trump administration would decide to take unilateral action against North Korea. → Read More
Sanctions, Sanctions and More Sanctions: Oh, and Sanctions Evasion Too
The international discourse on North Korea centers almost entirely on sanctions these days, but also on an outpouring of news on sanctions evasion. → Read More
North Korea’s Current Account Deficit with China: Crisis Coming?
Recently, North Korea watchers have been scratching their heads over contradictory claims about how much China’s trade with North Korea has increased (or not). Are the differences a result of quoting the changes from quarter-to-quarter over year-on-year; quoting them in RMB vs. → Read More
Moon Jae-in’s Berlin Speech
A central dilemma of engagement strategies has to do with timing. If concessions are granted prior to any reciprocal action, you run the risk of getting nothing in return. However, if you make promises waiting for the other to act, you may be waiting for Godot. → Read More
What Happened in Hamburg II: Back To Sanctions
Yesterday, I argued that there are three building blocks to coercive diplomacy: threats or use of force; threats or use of sanctions; and negotiations and related inducements. → Read More
Another Look: C4ADS — Risky Business
As hysteria rises around the peninsula, it is predictable that the administration will be looking to expand secondary sanctions on Chinese entities. → Read More
The Xi-Putin Summit
Summits between members of the Six Parties are coming at a fast and furious pace, with the G20 meeting providing the opportunity for still more (see my analysis of the Trump-Moon summit here). → Read More
The Trump-Moon Summit
If I were Moon Jae-in, I would be pretty happy with the summit. He walked away with both assurances to the alliance and room to maneuver on North-South relations. → Read More
The Pre-Summit State of Play
In the next couple of days, we will absorb the outcome of the Trump-Moon summit. → Read More
More on Warmbier
The Warmbier case has resonated far more than anticipated, sparking the appropriate mix of outrage, more subdued reflection, and thoughts about what to do. Today, I simply collate some developments following his tragic death and the reaction. → Read More
The Challenges of Engagement
There is a great scene in Tom Sawyer (Chapter Two) where Tom effectively says to Jim: “If you give me your apple, I’ll let you whitewash my fence.” That pretty much sums up the extraordinary game unfolding on the Korean peninsula, as Pyongyang (Tom) is doing everything in its power not onl → Read More
Warmbier and Rodman
On Monday I wrote a post reflecting on how far we should push sanctions on North Korea. I argued that a tourist ban might well be appropriate to curtail the regime’s revenue. It would prevent what I increasingly see as a hostage, not “detainee,” problem; enough with euphemisms. But a travel ban could cut into humanitarian and other people-to-people contact, general licenses from Treasury… → Read More
Secretary Mattis on the Asian Landscape
It is increasingly clear that the foreign policy of the Trump administration is going to be characterized by an ongoing struggle between an internationalist wing, a group within the administration that is hostile to such internationalism on ideological and political grounds, and the president’s o → Read More
UNSC Resolution 2356
In a departure from past pattern, the UN Security Council has passed a new sanctions resolution. → Read More
Honaker on Remote Sensing and Sanctions Enforcement
Satellite imagery has played a role in tracking the prison camp system and nuclear programs, but somewhat less has been done to monitor the economy. → Read More
The Special Rapporteur’s Report: Prison Camps and “Rights Up Front”
Roberta Cohen, who has a long history with North Korean human rights issues, has drawn my attention to something new in the Special Rapporteur’s February 2017 report (available here). Buried in para. → Read More