John Authers
Washington Post
New York, NY, United States
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Past articles by John:
The 20% Up Rule — Bull Market Vs. Bear Rally
What can be concluded from the S&P 500’s rise amid tech mega caps, a missing recession (earnings or otherwise), and more. → Read More
Why First Republic Won’t Likely Ruin Your Weekend
What crisis? It’s small enough to fail, and the risk already looks priced in. Plus, banks don’t matter as much as they used to. → Read More
The Hidden Message in Credit Spreads
The credit market looks alarmingly tight given the outlook of rising interest rates and recession fears. But there are reasons for this. → Read More
Fed Minutes Show Three Weeks Is a Long Time
A lot has changed since the FOMC met, but one thing remains: Rates will keep rising. Meanwhile, the bull or bear, risk-on or risk-off debate rages on. → Read More
When Above-Trend Earnings Are Not Good News
Market perspective is shifting amid a challenging time for retailers, even as Americans are spending more on travel and entertainment. And investors are not flocking to safe havens despite heightened geopolitical tensions. → Read More
Soft, Hard or No Landings? Time to Have Your Say
From the various scenarios around a recession to the invasion of Ukraine, we want to know your views on what will happen and how it will affect investment decisions. → Read More
Safe as Houses Again, or the Next Big Crisis?
The tug-of-war between falling property prices and higher rates may be at a turning point that entices homebuyers back in. But the Fed could tamp down any rally that props up inflation. → Read More
US Data Shock Is Now Coming for Emerging Markets
With the prospect of extended dollar weakness less certain, the EM rally is already being tested. → Read More
Whatever Keynes Said, Let’s Follow His Advice
If you’re not rethinking the economic outlook, you should be after the new facts in the US employment report. Meanwhile, Japan hints at continunity. → Read More
Talking Softly Without Carrying a Big Enough Hawk
In Powell, markets saw a Freudian “tell” that suggested dovishness — or maybe they just heard what they wanted to hear. Either way, the Fed lost the day. → Read More
Crash Test This Week for Market Versus Real World
An increasingly bullish outlook is on a collision course with Fed policy goals that still demand tighter financial conditions. The complications risk leading to longer hawkishness. → Read More
Why This Landing Won’t Be Coming in Straight or Pain-Free
The data now look better for soft, while the gut-check remains braced for hard. → Read More
Dumb, Dumber and Leading Economic Indicators
This monthly data ritual was useful in the era of the slide rule. Now, it’s a crutch for not paying attention. How much should it matter to markets? → Read More
The Black Swans Are Coming to Congress to Roost
A Points of Return guide to the US debt ceiling showdown — a crisis you’d rather not know about, but will probably need to. → Read More
Is 2% Inflation in View? Be Careful What You Wish For
Economists are looking past December’s CPI numbers to scenarios where inflation drops back to target levels. Getting there too quickly is risky. → Read More
The Rest of the World Is Running With the Bulls
Led by a weaker dollar and a reopened China, emerging markets are enjoying their biggest rally since 2010. Will it prove sustainable? → Read More
Earnings Season Will Hang on Price-to-Recession
What executives say about their companies’ prospects matters, but the marco picture this year lurks over everything. → Read More
What Never Stops Moving and Has Giant Teeth?
It's the Sharkonomy, stupid, and it behaves more like a Great White than an airliner coming in for a landing, soft or otherwise. → Read More
No Fed Cut? Markets Think It’s More Than a Matter of Minutes
Data points suggest the central bank could be too hawkish. But markets made a mistake clinging on to them 12 months ago, too. → Read More
Was It Kuroda’s Waterloo, or Just Smart Planning?
Whether defeat or tactical withdrawal, the Bank of Japan’s retreat on easy money likely marked the final big shock in a year full of them. → Read More