Anatole Kaletsky
Project Syndicate
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Past articles by Anatole:
What Could Spoil 2020? by Anatole Kaletsky
The most probable scenario for the global economy and financial markets this year is fairly obvious: continued GDP growth, rock-bottom interest rates, and rising equity prices. It's more useful to identify which unlikely events would alter this likely benign scenario – and consider how unlikely they really are. → Read More
Will Boris Johnson’s Political Coup Succeed? by Anatole Kaletsky
The UK's prime minister is probably right to think that suspending Parliament has made a last-minute Brexit deal more likely. Fortunately, there is also a decent chance that his quasi-dictatorial behavior will provoke a rapid parliamentary backlash that ends his political career. → Read More
Boris’s Brexit by Anatole Kaletsky
Political betting markets now put the chance of a no-deal Brexit at roughly one-third. But, regardless of the reckless promises to Conservative Europhobes that made Boris Johnson prime minister, an orderly, negotiated Brexit will be the favored option for a political libertine whose only consistent principle has been inconsistency. → Read More
Expansions Don’t Die of Old Age by Anatole Kaletsky
Many economists have become convinced that a recession in the United States is now overdue, if not immediately then surely before the 2020 presidential election. But US recessions since the end of World War II have generally resulted from three causes, none of which is currently present. → Read More
Has a No-Deal Brexit Become More Likely? by Anatole Kaletsky
Fanatical Brexiteers argue that a UK prime minister genuinely determined to deliver a no-deal Brexit could, and should, go nuclear: suspend parliament and refuse to call MPs back until after the October 31 deadline, when Brexit will happen automatically. The problem for them is that the UK isn't Zimbabwe or Venezuela. → Read More
Change UK can help defeat Hard Brexit – but not how you’d expect
The vagaries of the European election voting system, which is a complicated hybrid of proportional representation, party lists and traditional constituency voting have caused confusion about the likely outcome of the contest and how pro-Europeans should cast their votes. The dominant narrative has been about a landslide victory for a no-deal Brexit. → Read More
Goldilocks Growth by Anatole Kaletsky
Sooner or later, some political shock will disrupt the current happy balance of robust global growth and low inflation, as US President Donald Trump’s trade wars and oil sanctions almost did last year. But until such a shock actually happens, investors can sit back and enjoy their porridge just the way they like it. → Read More
How EU Leaders Can Prevent a No-Deal Brexit by Anatole Kaletsky
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s strategy of threatening a no-deal Brexit requires a hard deadline that forces her opponents to capitulate. Without that, “running down the clock” becomes “kicking the can down the road,” which more accurately reflects May’s paradoxical combination of robotic inflexibility and exasperating indecisiveness. → Read More
Is Canceling Brexit Now Inevitable? by Anatole Kaletsky
As matters stand today, a new British referendum on leaving the European Union would produce a clear majority for remaining a member, regardless of how the votes were counted or the questions were asked. And with the only two Brexit options set to be rejected next month, the questions are increasingly likely to be asked. → Read More
Why a US-China Tariff Ceasefire Is Coming Soon by Anatole Kaletsky
Donald Trump's negotiating style – “shout loudly and carry a white flag” – may seem incoherent and dishonest, but it has been spectacularly successful for him. And he's about to use it again with China. → Read More
Theresa May Could Back a New Brexit Referendum by Anatole Kaletsky
If voters rejected “no deal” in favor of no Brexit in a new referendum, May’s hardline opponents would be silenced, and her position as Prime Minister would be secured until the 2022 election. Why would she not seize this chance? → Read More
The US Will Lose Its Trade War with China by Anatole Kaletsky
In handicapping the US-China conflict, Keynesian demand management is a better guide than comparative advantage. In principle, China can avoid any damage at all from US tariffs simply by responding with a full-scale Keynesian stimulus. → Read More
Trump’s Victorious Retreats by Anatole Kaletsky
Why does US President Donald Trump keep making empty threats against other countries? While his detractors think he is simply a braggart, a fool, and an ignoramus, there could be a less unflattering, though equally depressing, explanation. → Read More
From Brexit to Breferendum by Anatole Kaletsky
The consequences of the Brexit self-delusion are now becoming obvious, as Britain’s government finds itself unable to get a parliamentary majority for any realistic plan to leave the EU. If this situation persists, Britain will have only one alternative: another referendum to reconsider the impossible result of the 2016 vote. → Read More
Nationalism Will Go Bankrupt
The opposite of populist nationalism is not globalist elitism; it is economic realism. And in the end, countries such as Britain, the United States, and now Italy will learn the hard way that reality always eventually wins. → Read More
Nationalism Will Go Bankrupt by Anatole Kaletsky
The opposite of populist nationalism is not globalist elitism; it is economic realism. And in the end, countries such as Britain, the United States, and now Italy will learn the hard way that reality always eventually wins. → Read More
The Known Unknowns of US Sanctions Against Iran by Anatole Kaletsky
The sanctions against Iran reinstated by US President Donald Trump raise two all-important questions that have no convincing answers. But they also raise a third question, about which financial markets are likely to be wrong. → Read More
Is Realism Trumping Populism? by Anatole Kaletsky
With economic conditions returning more or less to normal around the world after a decade of financial crises, nationalist populism is now seen as the biggest threat to global recovery. But is it possible that this consensus has emerged just as the populist wave has crested? → Read More
Why Aren’t US Bond Investors Panicking? by Anatole Kaletsky
Economists may warn that the combination of Trump’s protectionism, big tax cuts, and uncontrolled government borrowing, coming at a time when the US economy is already near full employment, will ultimately fuel inflationary pressure. But financial markets simply do not believe this message. → Read More
The Market Dogs That Didn’t Bark by Anatole Kaletsky
Did February’s equity-price reversal mark the end of the bull market, or was it just a temporary correction? In addressing this question, one must look not just at the stock market, but also at oil prices, long-term US interest rates, and currencies. → Read More