George Hay
ReutersBreakingviews
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Past articles by George:
Egypt’s hunger pangs are like 2011, but worse – Breakingviews
A decade ago the soaring cost of bread helped unseat Cairo’s long-term ruler, Hosni Mubarak. In 2022 food prices are rising faster, and Egypt’s population and debt are bigger. The more prices rise, the trickier the tradeoff between enraging financial and domestic constituencies. → Read More
BlackRock spikes guns of green activists
Larry Fink’s group will back more oil and gas production. After COP26, institutional money looked set to phase out fossil fuels, but an energy crisis has intervened. Rivals may follow the $10 trln fund giant, propping up driller valuations and complicating the green transition. → Read More
Europe’s oil major discount grows ever more stark – Breakingviews
Exxon Mobil and Chevron trade at big premiums to Shell, BP and Total, despite all benefitting from soaring fossil fuel prices. The Americans’ slower pivot to renewable energy is one reason why. Europeans’ lucrative trading arms give cause for investors to be more generous. → Read More
Putin’s gas shock is acid test of EU unity – Breakingviews
In severing Polish and Bulgarian supply, the Russian leader shattered a fragile equilibrium that had seen European energy buyers fund his war. He hopes other EU states will carry on, dividing the bloc. Instead, Europe should backstop the costly process of ditching Moscow’s fuel. → Read More
Banks enter AGM season wearing green bullseyes – Breakingviews
Top U.S. lenders and some European rivals face votes on their climate policies at looming annual general meetings. Banks may resist greening their loan books if that hits earnings. But even if they clear the immediate hurdle, the heat will be on to clarify their net-zero plans. → Read More
How metals markets can limit future debacles – Breakingviews
UK regulators want answers after the London Metal Exchange voided nickel trades. A supply crunch in a wider range of metals means Europe’s key market can expect more crises. Regaining trust may require new leaders, but the LME can at least reduce the impact of future shocks. → Read More
Hydrogen’s civil war reveals its winner – Breakingviews
The element has a big role in beating climate change. But fans of natural gas-based “blue” hydrogen and its zero-carbon “green” cousin are constantly vying for supremacy. Soaring fossil-fuel prices and energy supply fears after Russia’s Ukraine invasion are handing green victory. → Read More
Putin’s gas April fool masks ulterior motives – Breakingviews
The Russian president told importers to buy Moscow’s gas in roubles but seems to have devised a way for them not to. The storm in a teacup helps Putin look tough, and Europe’s leaders brace citizens for tough times. It may also have helped Russia sell more gas at higher rates. → Read More
National Grid gas sale has green edge on Macquarie – Breakingviews
The $54 bln UK company is selling 60% of its gas pipelines arm to a group led by the Australian finance house. The $13 bln deal has financial benefits for both. But National Grid’s switch to electricity is more immediate than the buyers’ plan to pump hydrogen through the pipes. → Read More
Russian gas gets harder to buy, but easier to snub – Breakingviews
Vladimir Putin’s call for Moscow’s hydrocarbon customers to pay in roubles puts Europe in a quandary. Still, Washington and Brussels are fleshing out a valid Plan B to Kremlin gas. That implies the Russian leader’s power to make market prices go haywire may start to wane. → Read More
Energy windfall taxes are messy, unfair, and vital – Breakingviews
Europe can theoretically raise hundreds of billions of euros from utilities benefitting from soaring energy prices. To get near that this year, some utilities could be shaken down inefficiently or unjustly. Public anger at rising energy bills means states still have to try. → Read More
Hong Kong may have a buyer if it wants to dump LME – Breakingviews
The London Metal Exchange’s nickel-trading goofs have upset customers and damaged its good name. Owner HKEX’s vision to link western and eastern markets already faced challenges. At the right price, U.S. rival ICE might get another shot at the prize it missed out on in 2012. → Read More
LME’s nickel business is halfway out the door – Breakingviews
The London Metal Exchange again suspended trading in the energy transition material, a week after wiping trades. The latest mess means custom is already heading elsewhere. The LME’s best hope is that a lack of oven-ready alternative venues leads to a degree of inertia. → Read More
Nickel’s return may leave everyone underwhelmed – Breakingviews
The London Metal Exchange will restart trading in the commodity on Wednesday, a week after the bourse suspended the market amid epic price rises. The LME’s decision to void trades angered financial investors. New safeguards may irk traditional members it was trying to protect. → Read More
Saudi’s MbS will eventually take Biden’s call – Breakingviews
America cannot plug the shortfall from cutting off Russian oil. Increased output from OPEC, and particularly Saudi Arabia, is key. De facto leader Mohammed bin Salman isn’t eager to help the U.S. president, but needs the endorsement of Western cash to transform the economy. → Read More
Nickel’s emergency stop creates longer-term issues – Breakingviews
The LME suspended trading in the metal and nixed trades after prices soared. The fix avoids wider losses, and London’s idiosyncratic market may make this seem a one-off. But commodity producers fretting over Russia may now also worry about how easily they can hedge in future. → Read More
West’s loaded oil weapon points to power rationing – Breakingviews
The U.S. and Europe could ban Russian crude imports to increase pressure on President Vladimir Putin. While oil is a better target for sanctions than gas, alternative supplies are far from assured. Companies and consumers may have to reduce demand, possibly by government decree. → Read More
Oil self-sanctioning is unstable weapon for West – Breakingviews
Traders and utilities are refusing to buy crude and gas from Russia, even though sanctions allow it. Insofar as this turns up the heat on the Kremlin, U.S. and EU leaders may not mind. The danger is that spiking prices alarm voters and lead to strains in the Western alliance. → Read More
How Europe can kick its Russian gas habit – Breakingviews
Conflict in Ukraine shows the folly of the continent depending on gas from Moscow. Speeding up renewable energy would help. To get to zero in a decade, however, Europe will also need other sources of gas, more nuclear power, multi-nation coordination and even consumer rationing. → Read More
West has some cover to ramp up Russian sanctions – Breakingviews
Sberbank and VTB halved after troops invaded Ukraine, suggesting Moscow’s banks and oligarchs may end up pariahs, like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. A Russian tit-for-tat might hit European gas supplies. The one comfort is that end of winter makes it less of an immediate problem. → Read More