Larry Berman
BNN Bloomberg
Toronto, ON, Canada
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Past articles by Larry:
Powell: Hawk or dove vs. S&P 500 support at 200-day average?
Today, we are past earnings period and the market will likely turn its focus from the micro (earnings) to the macro (economic risks). None are more important than what U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says to Congress this week and the fact that the S&P 500 tested, broke, and reversed back above key moving averages last week. → Read More
Larry Berman: FOMC likely to pound fist on higher for longer
The market likely got the wrong message from Chairman Powell after the Nov. 30 speech and interview. → Read More
Lagged impact of monetary policy transmission likely continue to weigh on asset markets: Berman
We expect members of the U.S. Federal Reserve will recognize the need to soon slow the pace of rate hikes. → Read More
Larry Berman: Did the FOMC hint at a pivot last week?
Currency markets can be a major consideration in your portfolios. → Read More
Market based pricing suggests we may have seen peak inflation: Larry Berman
Peak inflation expectations likely has already passed. → Read More
When consumer confidence is this weak, history says we are in a recession: Larry Berman
Very few investors today have experienced this level of inflation stress before. I’ve been an investor for more than 35 years and I have not seen it. → Read More
Fed rate hike cycle: Can we rely on historical reaction?
The history of Fed rate hike cycles and equity market behaviour may be different this time. → Read More
Do the Canadian election results matter for your portfolio?
You should rarely adjust your long-term goals for short-term noise. However, to the extent that the NDP force the Liberals to move more to the left on tax increases (new revenues), it could matter for some that are overweight Canadian income focused portfolios. → Read More
Larry Berman: Will bearish seasonal patterns impact timing of monetary and fiscal policies?
The Fed is inching closer to reducing stimulus (debt monetization). Congress is getting antsy about all the spending, but knows that an infrastructure bill is needed. → Read More
Larry Berman: Market breadth indicators suggest trend is weakening into poor seasonal patterns
The greater the number of stocks participating in the trend is bullish. There is no debate about it. When fewer larger stocks are lifting markets, the signal is that of a later stage more defensive rally (buy big safe blue-chip quality stocks). This does not mean you need to panic. It suggests that once a (bearish) catalyst is present, the odds that market sees a normal (5-10 per cent)… → Read More
Larry Berman: High bar set for U.S. earnings quarter
Expectations for 2021 earnings and beyond are robust to say the least. → Read More
Larry Berman: Are stock buybacks making inequality issues worse?
There is a significant shift developing towards minimum tax rates and for many companies to pay their fair share. → Read More
Larry Berman: What does China's latest move to allow 3 children mean for stocks?
The world’s natural growth rates have been declining for decades. China’s latest census has shown that trend to be accelerating and is likely the catalyst for this new policy. → Read More
Larry Berman: History of commodity cycles suggests prices don't go up forever
The history of commodity cycles can last for years. There is likely more to go in the current boom part of the cycle. However, they have shown strong patterns of boom and bust over decades. → Read More
Larry Berman: Evidence of a melt-up bubble is growing, caution signals are rising
Members of the American Association of Individual Investors told us last week they are very bullish, but not all of our PRO-EYEs metrics are lined up that way…yet. → Read More
Larry Berman: S&P 500 earnings expectations rise into sell-in-May rally
Optimism around market performance, corporate earnings and economic recovery could be setting the tables for a traditional May sell-off. → Read More
Larry Berman: Chinese tech stocks in the crosshairs
While there are elements of antitrust in China, the major issue in China today seems to be more about Big Tech getting too powerful and challenging President Xi Jinping. → Read More
Larry Berman: Seasonality and stimulus supportive for Q2
Seasonality patterns show expose longer-term historical biases in the markets. There is no guarantee these work every year, but when we combine seasonal factors with other non-related factors like the recent US$1.9-trillion stimulus package passed by U.S. Congress, some support for seasonal bias appears, raising odds that it plays out. → Read More
Larry Berman: What demographics can tell us about where to invest
There have been changes in demographics trends due to COVID-19, and not just because of the grim death toll. → Read More
Larry Berman: Why the Fed’s unlikely to let rates go up much more
The mechanics are complicated, but the message is that low rates will be needed so that the cost of paying the interest cost of the debt is not a growing burden on the tax base. → Read More