Alex Samuels, FiveThirtyEight

Alex Samuels


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  • Texas Tribune
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Recent articles by Alex:

Why Ilhan Omar Almost Lost Her Primary

Conventional wisdom suggests that members of opposing political parties don’t like each other — and I mean really don’t like each other. But what does it mean w… → Read More

A Record Number Of Black Republicans Could Be Headed to Congress

In today’s Congress, Republicans are still far more likely than Democrats to be white. But after the midterm elections in November, a record number of Black Rep… → Read More

Are You A Voter Of Color? We Want To Hear From You.

How are you, as a voter of color, weighing who you’ll vote for — or which party you’ll support — ahead of this year’s midterm elections? Too often, media covera… → Read More

How The Fight To Ban Abortion Is Rooted In The ‘Great Replacement’ Theory

It may not be immediately obvious how the fight over abortion rights is tied to the “great replacement” theory — the debunked conspiracy theory promoted by some… → Read More

Why Abortion Is A Civil Rights Issue for Black Voters

Overturning Roe could be just the tip of the iceberg for Black voters. → Read More

What Do Older Progressive Voters Want?

Welcome to Political Outliers, a column that explored groups of Americans who are often portrayed as all voting the same way. In today’s climate, it’s easy to f… → Read More

What Went Down During The June 28 Primary Elections

We now have 61 percent of the expected vote in for Illinois’s 1st District and there’s still no clear frontrunner, though Jackson doesn’t appear to be surrender… → Read More

What Went Down In The June 21 Elections In Alabama, Virginia And Georgia

In Georgia’s 2nd District, we’re now up to 66 percent of the expected vote in, and it looks like Hunt is in deep danger of losing the Republican runoff to West.… → Read More

Has Your State Made It Harder To Vote?

A guide to all of the new voting restrictions by state that affect how and when you can register to vote, apply or return a mail-in ballot, vote early and vote in-person on Election Day. → Read More

What To Watch In Texas’s Special Election

Texas is gracing us with yet another election — the third within the span of four months. Tonight we’ll be keeping an eye out on an emergency special election i… → Read More

10 Elections To Watch In Nevada, South Carolina And Texas

This week’s primaries are a gamble — and not just because many of them are in Nevada. Former President Donald Trump is backing challengers to not one but two in… → Read More

Why High Turnout In Georgia Doesn’t Mean Voting Restrictions Haven’t Had An Effect

In 2021, nearly two dozen states passed new voting restrictions in response to the lie that widespread voter fraud cost former President Donald Trump the 2020 p… → Read More

What Went Down During The May 24 Primary Elections

ABC News projects that state Rep. Jasmine Crockett will win the Democratic primary in Texas’s 30th District. This district is solidly blue, so Crockett shouldn’… → Read More

What Went Down During The May 24 Primary Elections

ABC News now projects that Ken Paxton will win Texas’s Republican primary for attorney general. While the incumbent should be safe this fall, he’ll either face … → Read More

What We’re Watching In Texas Tonight

Texas held its primary election a few months back, but a handful of the state’s races are still unsettled, which means they’re going to a runoff tonight. Here’s… → Read More

11 Primaries To Watch In Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota And Texas

Tuesday brings the next big batch of primaries, as voters head to the polls in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia — plus we get a little bonus electoral action thank… → Read More

Why The GOP’s Grievance Politics Might Not Turn Off Conservative Latino Voters

“Are you a racist?” “Do you hate Mexicans?” These are the two questions J.D. Vance, the GOP’s nominee for Senate in Ohio, posed to voters in a primary ele… → Read More

May 17 Primary Elections: Live Updates And Results

ABC News projects that Cheri Beasley will win North Carolina’s Democratic Senate primary. She’ll likely face Rep. Tedd Budd in November, as Nathaniel wrote. Thi… → Read More

Could Kathy Barnette Pull Off An Upset In Pennsylvania’s GOP Senate Primary?

In the lead-up to Pennsylvania’s GOP primary for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, a political novice without much money has suddenly emerged as a viable conte… → Read More

What Went Down During Ohio’s And Indiana’s Primary Elections

We finally have some results in from Ohio 7th District. Of course, only 6 percent of the vote is in so far, so it might be a while until we know the winner of t… → Read More