Nathaniel Rakich
FiveThirtyEight
Boston, MA, United States
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Past articles by Nathaniel:
Polls Aren’t Dead. Here Are The Pollsters To Trust.
Transcript Nathaniel Rakich: The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated. After the 2016 and 2020 elections, when the polls had a rough year, a lot of peo… → Read More
The Polls Nailed The 2022 Election
Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of… → Read More
Who’s The Team To Beat At The World Baseball Classic?
On top of all those strange new rules, there’s another twist to baseball this March: the return of the World Baseball Classic, the always-entertaining tournamen… → Read More
Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024
But that won’t help Marianne Williamson. → Read More
Where Democrats Won By Larger-Than-Expected Margins In February
It may be an odd year, but there are still elections happening — and the first notable election of 2023 took place last Tuesday, with contests in Virginia, Wisc… → Read More
Why We’re Preemptively Banning A Pollster — And Not Banning Another
FiveThirtyEight is in the business of grading and reporting on polls — so when a pollster allegedly engages in misconduct, we take it seriously. In November 202… → Read More
Biden’s Cabinet Members Seem To Really Like Their Jobs
Turnover in the Cabinet has been historically low. → Read More
When One Party Controls State Government
Transcript Nathaniel Rakich: In November 2022, Democrats in four states achieved trifectas. No, they didn’t get lucky down at the track — although they did win … → Read More
Americans Usually Blame Republicans After Showdowns Over Government Spending
Playing chicken with the national economy is not unusual for Congress and the president. There was the time that former President Donald Trump ground the govern… → Read More
Republicans Didn’t Get Less Popular After All That Speaker Drama — They Were Already Unpopular
The election for speaker of the House may have gripped Washington, D.C., for almost a week earlier this month, but the rest of the country apparently reacted wi… → Read More
Who’s Favored To Win The Oscars This Year?
FiveThirtyEight’s senior elections analyst, Nathaniel Rakich, is a big movie buff. Each year, he keeps a spreadsheet of films to track nominations and predict which might win Academy Awards. He recently went on ABC News Live to talk about his 2023 Oscar predictions. → Read More
3 Players Could Fall Agonizingly Short Of Baseball Hall Of Fame Election This Year
The election for the Baseball Hall of Fame is fun again — mostly. After a decade of debate over whether baseball bad boys such as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and… → Read More
Biden’s Approval Rating Is Up. Will His Misplaced Classified Documents Bring It Down?
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. President Biden still isn’t what you’d call popular, but he’s closer to popular than he’s been in some time… → Read More
One Major Concession From The Speaker Election Isn’t As Major As It Seems
As now-Speaker Kevin McCarthy was frantically striking deals in Congress to secure him the speakership earlier this month, his allies at the Congressional Leade… → Read More
DeSantis Is Polling Well Against Trump — As Long As No One Else Runs
I’m not happy about it, and you’re not happy about it, but it’s time to talk about polls of the 2024 Republican presidential primary. We’re still (probably) mor… → Read More
3 Questions We Have About George Santos
Before the revelations, George Santos was the type of fresh face the Republican Party would have put front and center. The representative-elect is Latino, openl… → Read More
What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common
The 20 Republicans who opposed Kevin McCarthy’s bid for speaker of the House had something in common before Tuesday’s drama: They are very conservative and scor… → Read More
What I Got Wrong In 2022
Here’s a prediction that 100 percent, absolutely, positively will come true: I will get something wrong in 2023. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we make a lot of predi… → Read More
140 Million Americans Will Live In States Controlled By Democrats
This video is part of our series “The Numbers That Defined 2022.” Transcript Nathaniel Rakich: One of the most important numbers in American politics this year … → Read More
Democrats Want To Put Abortion On The Ballot — But Many States Won’t Let Them
After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion-rights advocates took their fight to the states — and they won. The pro-choice side emerged victorious … → Read More