Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics

Sean Trende


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  • RealClearPolitics
  • AEI
  • Business Insider

Past articles by Sean:

The COVID 'Spike' in Reopened Texas: CNN Gets It Wrong

On Sunday CNN ran a segment on the spread of COVID-19 in Texas. The news channel promoted it with the jarring tweet “Texas is seeing the highest number of new coronavirus cases and deaths just two... → Read More

Policy and Punditry Need to Adapt to New Virus Data

When we began our foray into quarantine seven weeks ago, there was a unifying and eminently sensible rationale behind it: “Bend the curve.” The idea was this: If allowed to go unchecked, COVID-19... → Read More

Unthinkability Bias Comes for the Democrats

Voting in the Democratic Primary contest is getting ready to heat up, but the contest itself will be more-or-less over shortly after it begins. By the end of March, fully two-thirds of the delegates... → Read More

Buy, Sell, Hold (September Edition)

On the occasion of the third Democratic presidential debate, which will feature all of the top 10 contenders on stage for the first time, it is worth re-assessing the state of the race. I will use... → Read More

Yes, the GOP Should Worry About Texas

The past week brought a surge of strange news out of Texas. First, three Republican congressmen, representing suburban San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston, decided to retire. These retirements are... → Read More

Is GOP's Senate Majority in More Peril Than We Think?

The general thinking about the Republican Senate majority is that it has solidified to the point where Democrats are effectively shut out of gaining control of the upper chamber in 2020. But in... → Read More

Six Takeaways From the Midterms

Overall, Republicans had a tough night Tuesday. When all is said and done, Democrats look to have gained around 35 seats in the House, seven governorships and over 330 state legislators. Yet as rough... → Read More

What a Republican Hold in the House Might Look Like

As we move toward the close of this election cycle, impending control of the House of Representatives remains up in the air. The general consensus among analysts is that Democrats are the favorites,... → Read More


Ranking Trump's supreme court choices

The latter concern, at least, is misplaced, as Kavanaugh was ruling on mootness, a separate claim unrelated to the overall merits of the... → Read More

How the Battle for the House Is Shaping Up

If you had asked me six months ago who I thought would win control of the House of Representatives in 2018, I wouldn’t have hesitated before answering, “It’s early, but Democrats... → Read More

Why It Doesn't Matter Who the Winner Is in PA-18

As of this writing, Democrat Conor Lamb is clinging to a lead of roughly 600 votes in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. There are probably not enough... → Read More

Do Democrats Stand to Gain From Redrawn Pa. Maps?

On Monday, the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania struck down the state’s Republican-drawn congressional map. Because it did so on state constitutional grounds, there is likely no appeal to the U.S.... → Read More

Thoughts on the Virginia Races

Tuesday night was unequivocally a good night for Democrats in Virginia. Ralph Northam won the governorship by what appears to be the largest margin of any Democrat since at least 1985. The... → Read More

Flake Retirement Helps the GOP in Ariz. Senate Race

Flake Retirement Helps the GOP in Ariz. Senate Race | RealClearPolitics → Read More

Preview 2018 Senate Results With RCP's Interactive Tool

What will happen to the Senate next year? This is one of the crucial questions as we start to tiptoe toward the 2018 midterms. Democrats are facing an awful map – not the worst one ever, but... → Read More

Five Takeaways From the Georgia Special Election

Early Wednesday morning, Fulton County officials worked out a ballot processing issue and finished counting the votes in the special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. ... → Read More

Georgia Race a Window on Dems' 2018 Odds

With the special election in Kansas behind us, all eyes now turn to the special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. This Atlanta-based district was vacated when Republican Tom... → Read More

Why Estes' Narrow Win in Kan. Need Not Worry the GOP

I wrapped up my preview of the special election in Kansas Tuesday with the following admonition: “As a final thought, if Thompson wins, or even makes it a close race, it would be evidence that... → Read More

Does Kansas Special Election Signal Trouble for GOP?

Since the inauguration of Donald Trump, speculation has abounded as to whether his unpopularity could drag down the Republican House majority in 2018. We’ve seen massive protests in liberal... → Read More

How Trump Won

As a few observant readers have noted, one thing that has been missing entirely from this series is race. This is a bit odd, given that virtually all election analysis this cycle has focused on that... → Read More