Sean Trende
AEI
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Past articles by Sean:
What Biden’s approval rating means for the midterms
Quinnipiac University released its latest survey Thursday inquiring about President Biden’s job approval rating. It stood at just 35 percent, the lowest measured job approval of his presidency. To put this in perspective, the lowest poll reading Quinnipiac had for Donald Trump was 33 percent, and the lowest rating he ever received in any poll was … → Read More
Ohio, Texas, and the future of American politics
Over the past three decades, American politics have increasingly diverged according to population density. Rural areas have swung heavily toward Republicans, urban areas have become uncompetitive for Republicans, and suburban areas have emerged as the new swing areas. → Read More
Biden has 99 problems and the ports back logs are just one
Josh, Liz, Sean and Amy talk about President Joe Biden’s economic problems and redistricting ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Then, our panel discusses the Catholic Church’s position on vaccine mandates. → Read More
Biden's Job Approval Has Entered Dangerous Territory
In 1880, Americans did something momentous: They all elected their congressional delegations in the same year. Prior to that, elections had been a hodgepodge... → Read More
The GOP’s suburban dilemma
In the United States, the Republican Party is in the midst of a transition from a party based in the suburbs to a party based in rural areas. The growing urban-suburban-rural divide increasingly explains American politics. → Read More
Would Nuking the Filibuster Really Help Democrats?
Two weeks ago, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he would oppose H.R. 1, his partys election reform package, and further reiterated his support for... → Read More
Census Data Update: Will GOP See Apportionment Gains?
Going into this decennial reapportionment, it appeared that states congressional delegations were poised for widespread reshuffling of the deck. New York... → Read More
Are Republicans Really Favored in Georgia?
Control of the Senate is going to come down to two Jan. 5 runoffs in Georgia. Sen. David Perdue came a hairs breadth from winning his race against Jon Ossoff outright, but ultimately fell just... → Read More
No, Really -- Don't Pay Attention to Early Voting Data
Its that most wonderful time of year. After endless speculation, analysis, and hedging, we are tantalizingly close to having actual new election data to work with. Given this, it is a natural... → Read More
What a Big Biden Win Would Look Like
Over the past few weeks, Ive looked at scenarios and non-polling indicators that, if Donald Trump wins, we might look back upon and say, Aha, the signs were there all along! These are... → Read More
Have Pollsters Figured Out How to Poll the Midwest?
In 2016, as I was preparing to write my Why Hillary Will Win piece, I decided to have my able then-assistant, David Byler (now of Washington Post fame), do a bit of research. His job was to... → Read More
Why Has Minnesota Been Slow to Realign?
The 2016 election results were surprising for a number of reasons, but perhaps most surprising was the outcome in Minnesota. The state, which Republican presidential candidates have not carried since... → Read More
The COVID 'Spike' in Reopened Texas: CNN Gets It Wrong
On Sunday CNN ran a segment on the spread of COVID-19 in Texas. The news channel promoted it with the jarring tweet Texas is seeing the highest number of new coronavirus cases and deaths just two... → Read More
Policy and Punditry Need to Adapt to New Virus Data
When we began our foray into quarantine seven weeks ago, there was a unifying and eminently sensible rationale behind it: Bend the curve. The idea was this: If allowed to go unchecked, COVID-19... → Read More
Unthinkability Bias Comes for the Democrats
Voting in the Democratic Primary contest is getting ready to heat up, but the contest itself will be more-or-less over shortly after it begins. By the end of March, fully two-thirds of the delegates... → Read More
Buy, Sell, Hold (September Edition)
On the occasion of the third Democratic presidential debate, which will feature all of the top 10 contenders on stage for the first time, it is worth re-assessing the state of the race. I will use... → Read More
Yes, the GOP Should Worry About Texas
The past week brought a surge of strange news out of Texas. First, three Republican congressmen, representing suburban San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston, decided to retire. These retirements are... → Read More
Is GOP's Senate Majority in More Peril Than We Think?
The general thinking about the Republican Senate majority is that it has solidified to the point where Democrats are effectively shut out of gaining control of the upper chamber in 2020. But in... → Read More
Six Takeaways From the Midterms
Overall, Republicans had a tough night Tuesday. When all is said and done, Democrats look to have gained around 35 seats in the House, seven governorships and over 330 state legislators. Yet as rough... → Read More
What a Republican Hold in the House Might Look Like
As we move toward the close of this election cycle, impending control of the House of Representatives remains up in the air. The general consensus among analysts is that Democrats are the favorites,... → Read More