Gonul Tol
Foreign Policy
Washington, DC, United States
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Past articles by Gonul:
How Corruption and Misrule Made Turkey’s Earthquake Deadlier
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hollowed out state institutions, placed loyalists in key positions, and enriched his cronies—paving the way for this tragedy. → Read More
If at first you don’t succeed: Turkey gears up for Istanbul election rerun
The March 31st local elections in Turkey were a breath of fresh air for those long resigned to the fact that the ballot box doesn’t matter anymore and that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was invincible. To the surprise of many, the opposition captured all of Turkey’s major cities, but the decision by the Supreme Election Council on May 6th to nullify the results of the Istanbul mayoral election… → Read More
Invincible no more? Turkey’s Erdogan suffers election defeat
25 years ago, Turkish Islamists’ march to power began in the country’s capital, Ankara, and its largest city, Istanbul, when the ruling Justice and Development Party’s predecessor, the Welfare Party, captured the two municipalities. The loss of these cities in Sunday’s local elections could well mark the beginning of their descent. → Read More
Would Turkey benefit if the US withdraws from Syria?
For Turkey, the best solution to its “U.S. problem” might seem like an American withdrawal from Syria, but such a move could create new and potentially more complicated problems for Ankara. → Read More
From “hard power” to “soft power” and back again: Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East
Turkey’s foreign policy has come full circle in the last few years, from a "soft power" and regional exemplar to a "hard power" pursuing a muscular stance sustained by military engagements. → Read More
Monday Briefing: Iraq-Kurdistan pipeline deal
In this week's Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the Iraq-Kurdistan pipeline deal, how the YPG partnership affects US-Turkey ties, and the new Russia-Turkey gas pipeline. → Read More
Has dealing with Mohammed bin Salman become too toxic?
In this week's Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including Washington's response to the Saudi problem, the fading threat of a military campaign in Idlib, a potential U.S.-Turkey rapprochement, and a new round of talks between Washington and the Taliban. → Read More
Turkish court frees jailed US pastor Andrew Brunson
The key takeaway from Turkish court’s decision to release him is that playing hardball with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pays off. → Read More
Khashoggi crisis creates new challenges for Turkey’s foreign policy
The incident threatens to spark a major crisis between the two countries, and potentially between Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s Gulf allies, putting much-needed Gulf investment at risk. → Read More
Assad’s quiet breakthrough in New York
In this week's Monday Briefing, MEI experts provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including a potential Arab rapprochement with the Assad regime, a likely thaw in German-Turkish relations, an → Read More
From "fascists" to friends: Erdogan embraces the EU
The one good thing that has come out of the ongoing tension in Turkey-U.S. relations has been the rapprochement between Turkey and its key European allies. With no immediate prospect of normalization → Read More
Trump comes to leverage the UN, not to bury it
In this week's Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Eran Etzion, Gonul Tol, Randa Slim, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the potential for renewed U.S.-Iran talks, escalating tensions between Israel and Russia, Turkey's attempts to disarm rebels in Idlib, trilateral Russia-Turkey-Iran negotiations over Syria, and Russia-led Afghan peace talks. → Read More
Can the US and Turkey mend fences in Manbij?
In this week's Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Bilal Y. Saab, and Mirette F. Mabrouk provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkey-U.S. cooperation in Syria amid diplomatic tensions, talks between U.S. and Russian officials on Syria policy, the implications of a new Iranian fighter jet, and Egypt's revitalized work in regional diplomacy. → Read More
Turkey’s currency crisis rages on
In this week's Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Randa Slim, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on Turkey's currency crisis, talks in Ankara over the future of Idlib, Abadi's chances of clinging to the premiership, and the Taliban's capture of Ghazni. → Read More
Deal to ease tensions in Syria’s southwest still has sticking points
In this week's Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Eran Etzion, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Syrian government’s moves to assert control over southwestern Syria, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to lobby Europe to reinstitute sanctions on Iran, and Turkey's currency crisis. → Read More
Can a firebrand opposition leader turn the tide in Turkey?
In a country that has been ruled by one man for 16 years, getting the electorate stirred up is no easy task. But bigger challenges are still ahead. → Read More
Trump’s Jerusalem decision destabilizing West Bank and Gaza
In this week's Monday Briefing, MEI experts Nathan Stock, Alex Vatanka, Ruba Husari, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the fallout from President Trump's decision → Read More
Turkey's election: Can the opposition win?
Kurdish and pious voters will likely determine the fate of the country in the upcoming elections. The CHP needs to shed its image as a bastion of the old secular elite if it wants to win. → Read More
Monday Briefing: Syria strikes underline Assad’s vulnerability
In this week's Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Syria strikes, Turkey's Assad paradox, the Arab League summit, EU's view of the Iran nuclear deal, and clashes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. → Read More
Turkey’s precarious position in Syria
The recent statements from Russia and Iran calling on Turkey to hand over Afrin to the regime should be a reminder to Ankara of the risks of putting all its eggs in the Russian basket. → Read More