Kirk Mellish, WSB Radio

Kirk Mellish

WSB Radio

Kennesaw, GA, United States

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Recent articles by Kirk:

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches extended North up the East Coast – 95.5 WSB

The National Hurricane Center does NOT expect it to strengthen and the model consensus supports that. However, I must add the caveat that there are a couple of supporting atmospheric signals for it to intensify to a minimal hurricane. It’s worth repeating that the forecasting world lacks skill at forecasting intensity of storms one way or the other. It bears pointing out as well that REGARDLESS… → Read More

Isaias still problematic in many ways – 95.5 WSB

The pronunciation in Spanish is of course different. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH now includes Southeast Georgia. The storm is weak and disorganized this morning thanks to dry air and wind shear both working against it. Might not even be hurricane status. As per my previous blog post on Isaias days ago, many options are still on the table, with the exception as I said on Twitter the other day, it will… → Read More

Cristobal moisture to head North to U.S.

Downgraded to a tropical depression after going on land, the broad circulation and moisture from Cristobal is expected to drift slowly North over the next 5 days with the center of the storm expected to move onshore somewhere in central or Eastern Louisiana by early Monday morning as a moderate tropical storm. Texas impact minimal, confidence fairly high it will not be a hurricane but could… → Read More

Welcome dry spell, and slowly heating up

A slow but steady warming trend along with an extended week long dry spell in the cards. High pressure ridging in the jet stream takes over a good chunk of the nation for a good spell creating the change in the weather. A welcome break in the high humidity, too. But gradually the humidity will return longer range, and scattered thunderstorms will too in a week or so. But precipitation looks only… → Read More

Damaging wind risk

The chart above is the surface weather map for late today. The risk of large hail or a tornado is low today but not zero. Damaging winds are the higher threat from thunderstorms today and early evening. A stray morning shower is possible but most of us will stay dry until later today. The chance of a shower or thunderstorm starts going up during the lunch hour and goes higher after 3-4 PM.… → Read More

Textbook severe weather case Easter Sunday

It may not rain constantly Easter Sunday but rain is likely, heavy at times. This looks like a possibly historic severe weather outbreak in parts of Dixie, the data is showing all the parameters and ingredients coming together for heavy rain and numerous wind damage storms and some tornadoes, including the chance for a long-track strong tornado especially West and South of Atlanta. From this… → Read More

Snow or ice not expected to be widespread as rain ends

Gradually drying out overnight as the rain leaves and cold air moves in, a few flakes may be seen as far South as a Newnan to Hampton to Monticello Eatonton line tonight but little or no accumulation expected outside the Georgia mountains or Far NE suburban counties. Anything that occurs will not last or matter and comes to an end by 6am followed by a clearing trend. The window for a light… → Read More

Official preliminary snow amounts

The map above shows where there has been snow on the ground the past 24 hours. Looks like the max reported in the NE mountains was about 7” Observed data is still being collected to fine-tune the amounts reported but here are the preliminary amounts from Saturday: CoCoRaHS community volunteer civilian reporting network (note the 12 in Paulding was no doubt meant to be 1.2): NWS MAP: NOTICE how… → Read More

“So you’re saying there’s a chance” of snow

Interesting system coming in Saturday after 7am give or take a couple hours, ending after 1pm give or take a couple hours. Some snow some rain, no freezing rain. Highest odds of just rain near and South of a line from Newnan to Covington, but that line could end up being 20 miles or more further North or Further South (normal margin of error). Highest odds of significant accumulation near and… → Read More

Hard Freeze as Polar high pressure moves in from the Northwest

“There’s a chill this evening, a hard freeze is coming by the dawn” Lyrics from an old country music song I just made up. I do remember, “When there came a killing frost...” from the song Wildfire. There is also a book by that title. The air may be too dry for frost with dew points in the single digits to low teens Monday through Wednesday, that’s worthy of Minnesota and is split-ends and… → Read More

Dry now but wet period coming

We stay dry with quiet weather today and tomorrow. Then... Georgia will be in the squeeze between a cold jet stream trough centered to our West/NW and a warm high pressure ridge in the jet stream centered to our Southeast. The resulting Southwest to Northeast upper-level wind flow will bring in high dew points of Gulf moisture more like Spring and copious rain amounts, with temperatures running… → Read More

Relief from heat and dryness?

An approaching front and upper level disturbance tomorrow brings a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but nothing to get excited about so the majority of us get missed. Perhaps the rain chance will go up tomorrow but as it stands now only 20% or less with small amounts IF and when any occurs unless you get a lucky thunderstorm: The models are also trying to hint at some rain chance NEXT… → Read More

Dorian Cat 2 finally starts to move

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE GEORGIA COAST. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE GEORGIA COAST. Maximum winds near eye go down some but size of storm gets bigger as it spreads out. For Florida and GA/SC a near shore but offshore path is still expected for the EYE of Dorian as it begins a slow motion North just East of the Florida coast. As of now the eye of the… → Read More

Dorian expected to grow in size and strength

Dorian projected to a Category 3 today and then a category 4 before nearing Florida, no reason it can’t reach CAT 5. Does NOT mean it has to be a Cat 3-5 when/if it hits land. It is normal for the intensity to cycle up and down at unpredictable times. The models (at least for now) have come into remarkable agreement on the track path until it reaches Florida late Monday or Tuesday somewhere… → Read More

Heat wave to end, rain chance goes up

Despite rising odds of rain the next 3-5 days there will still be plenty of dry weather in-between, so NOT a “rainy or stormy weekend” but your plans will need to dodge scattered showers and storms especially Friday and Saturday, put the umbrella on standby and have a plan B. The good news is this marks the start of the end for our 19 day stretch of consecutive 90 degree high temperature days… → Read More

Return of humidity brings back some storms

The heat wave continues but unlike the past few days that had drier air, the humidity is back and the sun and heat are the match to spark scattered thunderstorms along with a couple low pressure systems in the area surface and aloft. A few of the storms this afternoon have caused wind damage with trees down and hail up to the size of a half dollar in the far North Suburbs. This pattern is… → Read More

Hot as a firecracker

500mb Jet Stream Chart above. Hotter than normal temperatures the next 4 days as the heat wave continues this week with temps running 4-9 degrees above average. Then temperatures drop a bit as the cloud cover increases by the weekend and beyond and the number of showers and thunderstorms increases on the weekend and next week. Meanwhile the next three days its hazy hot and humid with scattered… → Read More

U.S. Global forecast model gets an upgrade

The American GFS Model (Global Forecast System) has been replaced or upgraded with a new “digital dynamical core” called the VF3 (Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere) the first core upgrade in almost 40 years. In theory this will result in more accurate output from the model. But as in many human endeavors you may gain something on the one hand but lose something on the other hand. As someone who uses… → Read More

Unsettled tropical pattern continues

SURFACE WEATHER MAP MID DAY FRIDAY ABOVE. We our in a deep tropical air mass from the Gulf of Mexico and the pattern will be slow to change the next 5 days. Rather limited sunshine until late next week, next weekend looks drier and warmer than this weekend. I discussed in my last blog back on Wednesday how experience has taught me computer models usually exaggerate the rain chance and rain… → Read More

We’re having an early heat wave

It’s interesting to note that there are varying definitions of “a heat wave” because of course it depends on where you live and people vary on what they think hot is, some people even like hot weather while some like it cold. Some hot weather is normal and to be expected in the spring but mainly summer. BUT there is expected normal heat, and then there is heat above the normal and that is… → Read More