Harry Enten
FiveThirtyEight
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Past articles by Harry:
Texas Dislikes Trump, But That Doesn’t Mean It Will Go Blue In 2018
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song is “Everywhere You Look” from the television show “Full House.” Poll of the week Gallup … → Read More
Five Blue States Could Determine Who Controls The House In 2018
New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen’s retirement announcement this week wasn’t a game changer in the battle for control of the House of Representatives. Even b… → Read More
The Media Is Misreading How The Shutdown Blame Game Shook Out
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song is Sammy Davis Jr.’s rendition of “Chico and the Man” from the television show “Chico and the Man.” → Read More
Ending Gerrymandering Won’t Fix What Ails America
Gerrymandering. It’s become the embodiment of so many of the evils in the U.S. political system. Frustrated by the lack of competitive elections? Blame gerrymandering. Appalled by the growing number of ideological extremists in Congress? Blame gerrymandering. What about congressional gridlock? Gerrymandering did it. → Read More
Across All Parties, Ages And Races, Trump Is Less Popular With Women Than With Men
Fewer women in all three political affiliation groups -- Democrats, independents and Republicans -- approved of Trump than did their male counterparts. → Read More
The Government Shutdown Effect: Big In The Short Term, Small After That
The U.S. government partially shutdown today. The Senate couldn't cobble together the necessary 60 votes to keep the government open. And the blame game has already begun: Republicans in Congress and the White House are trying to make “Schumer Shutdown” stick (after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer), and Democrats are calling it the “Trump Shutdown.” → Read More
How Trump Ranks vs. Past Presidents In Popularity At The End Of Year One
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song is “Ordinary Girl” from the television show “Clueless.” Poll of the week The anniversary… → Read More
Americans Don’t Trust Trump On North Korea
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song is “We’re the Chipmunks” from the television show “Alvin and the Chipmunks.” Poll of the… → Read More
Do Republicans Really Have A Big Turnout Advantage In Midterms?
Democrats got the best of Republicans during the 2017 election season, outperforming expectations in special elections across the country and easily winning the only two governors races. Much of that success came down to turnout -- the Democratic base came out and voted. → Read More
Voters Think Trump Has Moved To The Right
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song is Sammy Davis Jr.’s rendition of "Movin' on Up" from the television show “The Jeffersons.” → Read More
Senator Mitt Romney?
The 2018 midterms got a bit more exciting on Tuesday. The longest serving Republican senator in American history, Orrin Hatch of Utah, announced that he would n… → Read More
What Harry Got Wrong In 2017
It's almost 2018. For some, that means looking forward to the new year -- what are the big political storylines to watch in the coming year? But I can’t do that until we finish one last end-of-year tradition: remembering all the times I screwed up! → Read More
The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood
The GOP is in a historically poor position a year out from the midterms. → Read More
Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not.
President Trump’s first year has been marked by an almost complete lack of major policy wins. But that could come to an end this week. Congress is on the verge of passing a massive tax bill into law. It would be the first major legislative victory for Trump and the Republicans. And it would accomplish a long-held GOP goal: cutting the corporate tax rate. → Read More
Special Elections So Far Point To A Democratic Wave In 2018
Democrat Doug Jones's stunning victory in Alabama on Tuesday should send a shiver down the spine of GOP elected officials everywhere. Yes, Jones likely would have lost the special election for a U.S. Senate seat had his Republican opponent, Roy Moore, not been an extremely flawed candidate. But Moore's defeat is part of a larger pattern we've seen in special elections so far this year, one in… → Read More
Sexual Harassment May Be The Only Thing Party Leaders Can Agree On
The party bases are split on their views of harassment, but elected officials of both parties seem to be on the same page. → Read More
Why Is Roy Moore Back In Front? Time And Trump Are Probably Helping
Republican Roy Moore appears to have pulled back into a lead in Alabama’s special Senate election. Moore had lost ground in the polls after allegations of child… → Read More
The GOP Tax Cuts Are Even More Unpopular Than Past Tax Hikes
Senate Republicans’ effort to pass tax reform is at a crucial juncture. As some senators waffle on whether to support the bill, they may want to spare a glance toward public opinion: Poll after poll shows that more voters than not are opposed to their efforts. In fact, the GOP bill is one of the least popular tax plans since Ronald Reagan’s day. → Read More
Is Roy Moore Losing?
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. (Coming to you early this week thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday.) Today’s theme song: “Walk With You” from the television show “Touched by an Angel” in honor of the show’s star (and singer of the theme song), Della Reese, who passed away earlier this week at the age of 86. → Read More
Why Menendez Is Still A Favorite In New Jersey’s Senate Race
One of the biggest wild cards in the 2018 battle for the U.S. Senate may not be so wild after all. New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez’s federal corruption … → Read More