Otaviano Canuto
Seeking Alpha
Washington, DC, United States
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Past articles by Otaviano:
The Impacts Of China’s Economic Reopening On Latin America
The post-‘COVID zero’ reopening of the Chinese economy has improved its growth outlook: the IMF projects 5.2% growth (2023), with declines afterward up to 3.5% in 2028. → Read More
The Parrot Says That Commodity Prices Will Rise
In 2023, both the demand and supply sides point to upward pressure across much of the set of commodity prices. → Read More
Macroeconomic Policy Regime Change In Advanced Economies
Three significant changes to the macroeconomic policy regime in advanced economies, compared to the post-global financial crisis period, have unfolded in the last two years. → Read More
The Fed's Focus On The Labor Market
Monetary tightening is aimed at slowing demand growth relative to aggregate supply, which will require a sustained period of below-trend US economic growth. → Read More
A Strong Dollar Is Contractionary For The Global Economy
The US dollar has risen in value in recent past. See why I believe turn or pivot of dollar will likely occur when a turn or pivot happens in US monetary policy. → Read More
Will Latin America Return To Mediocre Growth After Shocks?
Latin America's recovery after the perfect storm should not be limited to a simple return to pre-pandemic “mediocre” levels of output growth. Read more here. → Read More
Whither The Phillips Curve?
How fast will inflation respond downward to economic deceleration? Here's our response in terms of guessing where major economies’ Phillips curves have shifted to. → Read More
Is The U.S. Economy In Recession?
The difference between GDP and GDI has no precedent, and the GDI, in the first quarter, came with a positive number, while the GDP fell. Is the US economy in a recession? Read to learn more. → Read More
Tightening Financial Conditions Have Impacted Asset Values
In the first half of this year, U.S. stock markets suffered a fall not seen in more than 50 years. Financial conditions have tightened as government bond yields have risen globally. → Read More
Quantitative Tightening And Capital Flows To Emerging Markets
Read to know how complementary or substitute will be QE and QT movements in interest rates and balance sheet downsizing and their likely consequences on capital flows to emerging markets. → Read More
Slowbalization, Newbalization, Not Deglobalization
One can expect slower globalization (“slowbalization”) and a greater degree of regionalization in the future. → Read More
The Global Food Price Shock
The world food price index collected for the last 60 years by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) hit its highest record in March, declining gently in April. → Read More
Biggest Commodity Price Shock In 50 Years
The current commodity price shock should remain there in the medium term. What is the outlook for commodity markets? Click here to find out. → Read More
Dollarization Of Argentina: Revival Of A Zombie Idea
Last March, a proposal of dollarizing Argentina's economy arrived at its Congress. We summarize here the potential consequences of such a route in case the bill succeeds in getting approval. → Read More
Emerging Economies, Global Inflation, And Growth Deceleration
The World Economic Outlook report released by the IMF on April 19th depicted a worsening in the global economic scenario for 2022: lower economic growth and higher inflation. Here's my take. → Read More
Brazil At A Post-Pandemic Macroeconomic Crossroads
Apart from the dramatic health implications, COVID-19 will also scar the Brazilian economy, including through a jump in its already high public-sector debt-to-GDP ratio in 2020. → Read More
Why A Weaker Dollar Might Be Good For Emerging Markets
There is currently a convergence of views that, gradually or not, US current account deficits and insufficient domestic savings tend to slide down the relative value of the dollar. → Read More
Middle-Income Countries Should Not Be Rushed To Graduate
A rush to graduate and cease multilateral development bank activities in upper-middle income countries would come at a higher cost than assumed. → Read More
The Pandemic Will Reshape Globalization
Global trade suffered a severe decline during the pandemic, and its recovery is not steadfast. The pandemic will bring consequences to the configuration of global value chains. → Read More
The 2 Sides Of Capital Flows To Brazil
There was a significant inflow of funds in Brazil's external financial account in October and November for investments in both stocks and fixed-income instruments. → Read More