Michael Boyd, Seeking Alpha

Michael Boyd

Seeking Alpha

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Recent articles by Michael:

Suncor Stock: Worthy Of A Look (NYSE:SU)

News that Elliott is involved in Suncor is not new, but we're starting to see the impacts of that. This and other factors are contributing to Suncor's bull thesis. → Read More

ONEOK: Things Are Not OK (NYSE:OKE)

There are several reasons to stay away from ONEOK. Read more to see the three most prominent ones that should be front and center of investor minds. → Read More

DCP Midstream Stock: Don't Forget The Preferreds (NYSE:DCP)

DCP Midstream is one of a handful of midstream firms that have publicly-traded preferred stock remaining in their capital stack. Read more here. → Read More

Energy Transfer Stock: Back To Growth (NYSE:ET)

Energy Transfer reported blowout earnings in Q1, making it one of the stars of the midstream space. See why I think there is some upside to ET's guidance. → Read More

Midstream Prices Crash: Maybe We Have Seen This Before

Energy stocks have been decimated from a one-two punch impacting supply and demand: the OPEC+ reversal and COVID-19.But, have we seen this before? 2014-2016 saw oil prices collapse more than 70% on supply and demand fears.Is this worse? Arguably so. But midstream valuations are much different as well. → Read More

Shale Marked For Death: Who Dies, Who Thrives

A root cause of the recent spat between OPEC+ revolves around US shale and what its place in the global energy space should be. While somewhat similar to the oi → Read More

Chesapeake Energy: Maybe A Miracle On The Way

Chesapeake Energy provided preliminary Q4 numbers a couple of weeks ago. Not much was in there to give investors any hope.Given the current forward curve and lack of flexibility, Chesapeake is all but guaranteed to default on its credit agreements.However, there might be a tiny hint in this press release on the Haynesville sale. Or it could be a red herring. But it's worth speculating on. → Read More

Taubman Centers Bought By Simon: Are There Implications For Other Mall REITs

Taubman Centers will be bought by Simon Property Group; mall investors rejoice.The broader market balks and distressed mall names remain within spitting distance of yearly lows.The moral of the story is the importance of quality. → Read More

Devon Energy: Pivot Nearly Complete

Devon is in the later stages of a transition out of Canada and away from natural gas. Results have been solid.The sale of Barnett shale assets sets the company up to reduce leverage and buy back shares, helping ease the discount the company trades at versus E&P peers.While not my favorite upstream play, there is a lot to like here from both an exposure and story-driven catalyst framework. → Read More

Ring Energy: Analysis Of Stated Returns

Ring Energy tends to draw in investors because of the low costs of drilling and stated breakevens / IRRs.While the company claims IRRs of 131% at $50.00/WTI, it cannot generate free flow at the same time. What gives?Ring Energy is a lesson in breaking down financial presentation assumptions, understanding their faults, and comparing that against actual booked results. → Read More

Natural Gas E&Ps: Surviving The Downturn

Natural gas pricing has tumbled significantly. The futures curve looks pretty rough for 2020.Credit downgrades are starting to pick up in the space as free cash flow drops and asset sales have been sparse.Who survives or makes it out the other end of this downdraft will all come down to credit markets access. → Read More

Occidental Petroleum: Maybe Not A Deserving Bounce Off The Bottom

The fall in the share price at Occidental is no surprise for anyone tracking what institutional investors want in an upstream E&P. Retail investors have poured → Read More

Chefs' Warehouse: Broken Roll-Up Concept Makes For A Short Opportunity

At first blush, the Chefs' Warehouse concept sounds appealing: catering to the high end foodservice customer.Reality is different. The company has tripled revenue in recent years, gaining scale - but margins have gone down instead of up.Leverage has remained under control only via equity offerings and hybrid debt products with low interest rates. The business does not outearn its cost of capital. → Read More

USD Partners: Massive Contract Win, Yet No Reaction

Prior to recent news, I viewed USD Partners as one of the most compelling short opportunities in midstream heading into 2020. Crude by rail is, in my opinion, a → Read More

Cummins: Management Flip Flop

The executive suite willingly admits that demand is at cyclical peaks and that it has misjudged the severity of the fall. The stock price has been resilient in → Read More

Kosmos Energy: Deep Value, 2020 Catalysts

Kosmos Energy, while it has its risks, trades at a pretty nice implied free cash flow yield.While on the higher side of leverage, potential monetization of currently non-cash flowing assets (Tortue) provides a way to raise cash with no earnings downside.The recent Tullow related sell-off was a buying opportunity, investors should consider a return to those prices as a gift. → Read More

Unit Corp.: Bond Exchange A Golden Asset-Backed Opportunity

Unit Corporation is a small-cap E&P facing a maturity wall. Unable to refinance traditionally, it has offered a debt exchange. Because this is technically a def → Read More

Income Investor Conundrum: Midstream Vs. Utilities

Utilities and Midstream share some commonalities, at least more than many might think. In a raging bull market that has sent most sectors to all-time highs, ene → Read More

SunCoke Energy: Patience, Grasshopper

SunCoke Energy has found itself mired in a poor coal environment for both coke coal and thermal. Steel contract renewals coupled with thermal coal counterparty bankruptcies will see earnings get slashed from current levels, no question. Shares have been and continue to get creamed. There might be value on the other side, but headline risk is too great. Poor sentiment makes this an avoid for now. → Read More

Q3 In Midstream: Earnings Up, Stock Prices Drown

Investors are spooked about investing in midstream; executives have a blasé attitude. Despite earnings beats in Q3, the market continues to worry about 2020. Mi → Read More