Mike Bird
Wall Street Journal
United Kingdom
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Past articles by Mike:
The Bonds That Cried Major Default Risk
Evergrande is in the midst of another financial squeeze. It has shrugged them off before, but the task at hand looks daunting, and previous false alarms don’t make that any less true. → Read More
The Straightforward Economics of Vaccine Lotteries
The payouts made by lotteries for people vaccinated against Covid-19 are minimal when compared with the economic costs associated with current or future outbreaks. → Read More
A Rising Yuan Sets the Stage for More China-U.S. Currency Friction
China’s foreign-exchange reserves haven’t risen much in the past year, but there are other telltale signs that the central bank may be resisting a stronger yuan. → Read More
China’s Vaccination Surge Could Accelerate Asian Recovery From Covid
A sharp acceleration in the number of vaccine doses deployed in China won’t end Asia’s tight travel restrictions overnight, but it brings the prospect of at least some relaxation forward in time. → Read More
Don’t Bet Against Beijing’s Efforts to Smother Bitcoin
China has three big reasons to further crack down on bitcoin mining and trading activity, which means that the climate for cryptocurrencies in the country is likely to worsen. → Read More
How a Global Minimum Tax Could Impact Markets
While it’s still unclear whether a global minimum tax will ever come to pass, the worm seems to have turned on corporate tax levels. Companies paying very low corporate taxes—and their investors—should brace for impact. → Read More
Will Demographics Tank China’s Housing Market?
China’s northeastern regions have depopulated more quickly than previously believed. But major cities in the industrial rust belt have still recorded rising house prices. → Read More
Foreign Investment Will Be the Last Financial Casualty of the Pandemic
For a true resumption of greenfield foreign investment, global travel restrictions will have to be all but over, which may not happen for years. → Read More
When the World’s Best-Performing Stock Market Takes a Dive
The indiscriminate slump in Taiwan’s stock market demonstrates that sometimes flows overwhelm fundamental analysis, an increasing risk as stock buyers take on more leverage. → Read More
A Shift in Market Leadership Is Reassuring When Stocks Get Frothy
Value stocks are outperforming pricier growth stocks by the greatest margin in over a decade. → Read More
The Global House Price Boom Could Haunt the Recovery From Covid-19
House prices around the world have rallied through the economic turmoil. Growing leverage and decreasing affordability raise both financial and political risks. → Read More
A Global Operation Warp Speed is Needed to Unlock World-Wide Vaccine Production
Abandoning intellectual-property protections for Covid-19 vaccines is a statement of intent, but far more international collaboration is required to accelerate production globally. → Read More
Yellen’s Interest-Rate Comment Illustrates the Market’s Greatest Worry
Investors are always sensitive to the possibility of changes in interest-rate policy, but exceptional economic circumstances, a new Fed framework and frothy financial markets have left them even more fixated than usual. → Read More
Asia’s Lopsided Economic Booms Store Problems for the Future
An export-centered recovery—and the policy choices that come with it—has stored up financial vulnerabilities down the line in South Korea and Taiwan. → Read More
Beijing’s Squeeze on Fragile Real-Estate Developers Is Getting Real
Broad bank lending to the real-estate sector, and developers’ access to bond markets, are both being squeezed. The companies are increasingly dependent on large deposits from home buyers. → Read More
Saying Au Revoir to the Most Successful Policy in Federal Reserve History
The Federal Reserve’s three-month currency swaps to other central banks will cease in July. They cost nothing, prevented an emerging crisis and may have left markets healthier in the aftermath. → Read More
Stock Market Investors Must Keep an Eye on the Corporate Cash Mountain
During the pandemic, cash holdings surged, accelerating a decadelong trend. The levels bear watching, because they convey important information about likely future returns. → Read More
The Covid-19 Risk to Markets Isn’t All Over
India’s worsening outbreak is taking the sheen off its impressive equity-market performance, demonstrating that financial markets are resilient but not immune to renewed pandemic risk. → Read More
China’s Digital Yuan Poses No Threat to the Dollar’s Dominance
There is more hype than substance in discussions of the digital yuan’s role overseas. New payment methods won’t transform a currency that foreigners don’t want to hold into one that they do. → Read More
The Dollar’s Sliding Share in Global Currency Reserves is a Red Herring
The greenback is at a 25-year low in official currency reserves, a figure that understates the currency’s importance in a number of ways. → Read More