Josh Marshall, Talking Points Memo

Josh Marshall

Talking Points Memo

New York, NY, United States

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Recent articles by Josh:

It’s About the Classified Documents

We now have confirmation from CNN that the raid was about the 15 boxes of classified documents that Trump took with him to Mar-a-Lago. This is a critical point. → Read More

Initial Thoughts

You see the big news. It speaks for itself in terms of its magnitude. We can drown in schadenfreude. But the reality is that this is a massive, massive development with no precedent or parallel in… → Read More

People …

Lots of things are suddenly going right for Democrats heading into the midterms. That doesn't mean it's enough to keep them in the control of Congress. But the trends are in their direction. → Read More

Good Lord

I’m sure we’ll have a lot more on this tomorrow. But if I’m understanding this right, the Attorney General of Michigan, Dana Nessel, has just had to recuse herself and ask for a special counsel because the Michigan state police has recommended a felony charge against her general election opponent, Matthew DePerno. → Read More

Gutting the SALT Deduction is Terrible Policy

With SALT deductions again – at least momentarily today – at the center of a Senate legislation battle, I wanted to write out in one place why reducing the SALT… → Read More

Trump’s Grievance Feedback Loop

Democrats are now in a reasonably strong position to hold the Senate and perhaps expand their majority. A major reason for that is that Donald Trump took it… → Read More

Roe and Reform Matters Even More for the House Than the Senate

Since we started talking about Roe and Reform, the Democrat's prospects in the Senate have improved significantly. Dems holding the Senate now seems a more… → Read More

Kyrsten Sinema – Still Completely Terrible

You've probably seen the news that Kyrsten Sinema has signed on to the Schumer/Manchin climate and inflation deal. She did so in exchange for nixing the carried… → Read More

What Do You Say?

Yesterday TPM Reader NN wrote in to ask what exactly it makes sense to say if you're calling a Senate office about Roe and Reform. I thought others might be… → Read More

Blue Trend #2

Another probabilistic nugget. As of today, the polls-only version of the 538 Senate forecast has 52 Democratic seats as the most likely outcome of the election. → Read More

Blue Trend

I consider 538 the canonical average for the congressional generic ballot. Just in the last hour it clicked to dead even after a group of new polls came out showing Democrats in the lead. → Read More

Kansas Proves the Power of Roe and Reform

While vote counting slowed overnight with about 96% of the Kansas anti-abortion referendum vote counted, No (pro-abortion rights) is steady at 59% of the vote. → Read More

Huge News

It's not officially called yet. But I've been watching the returns closely and it appears that the anti-choice referendum in Kansas is going down to a decisive… → Read More

Guess What?

Look what TPM alum Tierney Sneed is up to. Turns out Trump DOD officials also got their texts wiped clean after Jan 6th, Tierney reports.Who knew the Secret Service phone reset had such a wide impact? → Read More


As you know, tonight is another primary night. A number of key Senate contests will be decided. One big one is in Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly will get his… → Read More

You Be You

The modern GOP's sheer level of political cynicism is simply remarkable. I noted this morning that in retaliation for Dems outwitting Mitch McConnell with their… → Read More

Nota Bene: 7.28.22

New congressional generic ballot poll: Suffolk, D-44%, R-40%. Meanwhile, the 538 average of these polls is now R+.02. → Read More


In case you didn't notice I wanted to draw your attention to one thing. While Senator Schumer and the White House were trying to revive some skinny version of… → Read More


New Georgia Senate poll out this morning from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Warnock 46%, Walker 43%. This is in line with other recent polls which show a modest but consistent Warnock lead. → Read More


We've got our first "Roe and Reform" score change. The office of Sen. Duckworth reached out to Kate Riga this morning to inform her of Senator Duckworth's position change on Friday. She' → Read More