James Dobbins
RAND Corporation
Arlington, VA, United States
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Past articles by James:
To Lose a War
The result of a U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan will be a blow to American credibility, weakening of deterrence and the value of American reassurance elsewhere. It will also result in an increased terrorist threat emanating from the Afghan region, and the distinct possibility of a necessary return there one day under worse conditions. → Read More
Stabilizing Eastern Syria After ISIS
The authors assessed humanitarian needs in Eastern Syria's Middle Euphrates River Valley and examined how locally focused stabilization efforts might be orchestrated to help preclude the Islamic State's recapture of territory. → Read More
The Biden Administration's Afghanistan Challenge
American efforts to speed up plodding Afghan peace talks seem unlikely to produce results fast enough to facilitate a withdrawal of remaining American and NATO forces by May 1. But the initiative could prove beneficial if it impels the two Afghan sides to at least begin engaging on the principles upon which an expanded government should operate. → Read More
DDR in Afghanistan: Disarming, Demobilizing, and Reintegrating Afghan Combatants in Accordance with a Peace Agreement
Implementing a peace accord between the Afghan government and the Taliban will take years. Disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) are likely to result from rather than lead the process, because disarmament requires a level of trust that can only be built over time. How can the U.S. best advise Afghan authorities on DDR? → Read More
Seizing the Golden Hour: Tasks, Organization, and Capabilities Required for the Earliest Phase of Stability Operations
This report analyzes the golden hour—the early phase of a postconflict stability operation—and the actions, organization, and capabilities necessary to seize it and set the conflict-affected country on a path to self-sustaining peace. → Read More
What to Expect from China in 2020
Last year was an eventful one in China, with U.S.–China trade tensions escalating, protests in Hong Kong reaching a crisis point, and President Xi Jinping further consolidating power. What might the rest of the world expect from China in 2020? → Read More
The Lost Generation in American Foreign Policy
Throughout the 55 years following World War II, successive U.S. administrations racked up major foreign policy successes at an average rate of about once a year. Since 2001, the pace of foreign policy achievement has fallen to once every four years. The result has been a lost generation in American foreign policy. → Read More
Trump and Kim Jong Un might officially end the Korean War. Here's why that could matter.
After 66 years, a peace declaration at the Vietnam summit could lead to negotiations and more normal relations between the two Koreas and America. → Read More
Russia Is a Rogue, Not a Peer; China Is a Peer, Not a Rogue
Russia and China represent distinct challenges for the United States. Russia is a more immediate and more proximate military threat to U.S. national security. But China presents a regional military challenge and a global economic one. → Read More
Consequences of a Precipitous U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
In December 2018, President Donald Trump directed the Secretary of Defense to reduce the U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan by half. In this paper, the authors consider the likely effects of an early and complete or near-complete departure. → Read More
Commentary: U.S. should review its approach to Syria's Assad
The Trump administration has begun to roll back the president’s announced pullou... → Read More
Confusion Over the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria
Washington's strategy in Syria has been to impose costs on the Syrian government by diplomatic ostracism and economic sanctions. This punitive approach is morally satisfying and politically expedient, but as a practical matter it just helps perpetuate the conflict and sustain Assad's dependency on Iran. → Read More
Commentary: Trump's Syria withdrawal
With the arrival of a new Congress in January, American domestic politics is likely to become even more turbulent - and might spill into the realm ... → Read More
Commentary: Trump’s Syria withdrawal – right idea, wrong time
President Trump’s planned withdrawal of American troops from Syria, a move that prompted the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, was the right decision in the wrong way and at the wrong time. Unless modified it could have disastrous consequences. → Read More
Time to Return to the Basics of Statecraft
After two decades of setbacks abroad, it's time to ask whether the decline in American influence is irreversible. Ultimately, neither China nor Russia is responsible for these difficulties. Washington's failures have been self-inflicted, the result of flawed policy rather than any decisive shift in the global balance of power. → Read More
Economic Sanctions and Carpet Bombing Are Similarly Ruinous
For American policymakers, economic sanctions are too often the soft choice between doing nothing and taking effective but risky or expensive action. Yet, before they inflict years, perhaps decades of impoverishment and worse on entire populations, they should ask if their efforts are likely to succeed and are worth punishing an entire people to do so. → Read More
Trump's Latest Move on Afghanistan Is a Repeat of Obama's
So far, both Presidents Obama and Trump have chosen “not to lose” in Afghanistan. As time goes on and the American public's patience grows shorter, this choice becomes more difficult. → Read More
Commentary: Why this wasn’t Kim’s father’s – or grandfather’s – summit
The joint statement issued by the American and North Korean leaders after Tuesday’s Singapore summit is a shorter and weaker version of promises made by Kim Jong Un’s father and grandfather – and those made by the younger Kim to South Korean President Moon Jae-in less than two months ago. → Read More
Don't listen to Trump on Russia. If Group of 7 expands, how about India and Brazil?
Whether you judge by size, power, democracy or a free market, Russia doesn't have what it takes to rejoin the G7. But China, India and Brazil might. → Read More
Regime Change in Iran: Watch What You Ask For
Mike Pompeo's speech in May signaled a desire for regime change in Iran, but the U.S. will have to change its approach to shape a positive outcome. This could involve targeting sanctions more narrowly rather than seeking to impoverish the general population. And lifting the ban on Iranian visitors to the U.S. would be a good start. → Read More