Cullen Roche
Seeking Alpha
San Diego, CA, United States
Contact Cullen
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Past articles by Cullen:
Economic Outlook
While the process of economic growth might not be a clean cycle like a sine wave, it is a series of repeated asymmetric booms and busts built on the back of human reaction and overreaction. → Read More
Has Housing Bottomed?
There was a glimmer of hope in the housing data from January. When housing moves a lot in one direction or the other, it has a disproportionate impact on aggregate growth. → Read More
3 Things I Think I Think
Falling wages reduce the odds of a 1970s style outcome. The biggest lesson for me was the sheer uncertainty of the future. Click here to read. → Read More
3 Things I Think I Think – Happy Disinflation Year?
In my outlook I said that 2023 was going to be the year of disinflation. Is 2023 really going to be a happy disinflation year? What are the 3 things I think about? → Read More
3 Things I Think I Think
Housing is going to steer the US economy and inflation in the coming 24 months. Should I buy private REITs? Click here to find out. → Read More
3 Things I Think I Think
The last few years have been jarring in numerous ways. They’ve also forced me to reconsider how I help people navigate the financial world. → Read More
Are The Bond Vigilantes Back?
Bond vigilantes reflect the idea that bond investors can attack a government debt market and dictate terms that the government wouldn’t otherwise desire. → Read More
There's No Fed 'Pivot' Coming
There isn’t going to be a pivot here. The Fed is going to have to backpedal again to get back on defense. → Read More
3 Things I Think I Think – It's Breaking
Most of your money market or high yield options will cost you 0.1% in expense ratio and get about half of what T-Bills are earning. → Read More
Inflation Debates – YoY Vs. MoM
A surprisingly controversial debate broke out in recent days when Joe Biden said there was no inflation. → Read More
3 Things I Think I Think – What Is A Recession?
The Fed appears to be pivoting towards a more dovish stance and that’s part of why stocks have been bouncing. Read more. → Read More
The Risk Of Deflation Is Now Greater Than The Risk Of Prolonged High Inflation
The most recent headline CPI came in at 9.1% so it might seem odd to think that the risk of disinflation and deflation is rising. Read more here. → Read More
3 Things I Think I Think – Flation, Flation, Flation
Back in January, I said inflation had peaked. This morning’s Core PCE data seals the deal for me – it looks like inflation peaked in February. Read more here. → Read More
3 Things I Think I Think – The Fed Lost Some Money
Since they started raising rates late last year the Fed has $540B of unrealized losses. → Read More
Your Balanced Index Still Isn’t Balanced
Rebalancing back to 60% stocks helps regulate that skew and reduces the downside variance if the stock market falls a lot. Read more. → Read More
The Fed's Policy Mistake Has Been Made
Outside of a major shock in Russia or China, the underlying data is very likely to show moderating inflation in the coming year. → Read More
3 Things I Think I Think – Bonds, Bear Markets And ESG
The basic thesis is that the Fed has shocked financial markets with its aggressive position on rates and the needed effect will filter through the economy and inflation data in the coming... → Read More
3 Things I Think I Think – When Things Break
We haven’t even started to see real house price declines or other real asset price declines from refinancing hurdles. Click to read more. → Read More
A Cautionary Note About Home Prices
Today, I feel bearish and I think new buyers need to be extremely prudent in navigating their home purchasing decision. Read more here. → Read More
Some Pleasant Arithmetic Behind Falling Prices
With bond yields near 0% across so much of the global bond market, it was becoming increasingly common to hear that “3% is the new 4%” withdrawal rate. → Read More