Josh Hermsmeyer
FiveThirtyEight
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Past articles by Josh:
This Obscure Super Bowl Prop Bet Will Baffle You
This year’s Super Bowl in Arizona will be the first ever played in a state with legalized gambling. Fans in Glendale will be able to bet while at the game using… → Read More
How The Eagles Built A Winner By Overdrafting Quarterbacks
According to most of the football world, Jalen Hurts should not be a Philadelphia Eagle. Even Hurts was incredulous at the beginning. When his phone rang on dra… → Read More
Brock Purdy Was Mr. Irrelevant. Now He’s Mr. Impossible.
Joe Montana. Steve Young. Yelberton Abraham Tittle. Some of the best quarterbacks to ever set foot on an NFL field played for the San Francisco 49ers, but none … → Read More
NFL Games Have Never Been Closer. Here’s Why.
If it seems like there are a ton of tight games each week in the NFL this season, you’re definitely not imagining things. When it comes to close contests, 2022 … → Read More
The Ravens’ Pre-Snap Motion Is A Deadly Weapon — But It Might Also Lead To More Penalties
The Baltimore Ravens were cruising on their first drive Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Quarterback Lamar Jackson began the game by drilling a laser 20… → Read More
The Colts Hired Jeff Saturday As Head Coach. We Have Questions.
The Indianapolis Colts are a mess. After years of neglecting to address the quarterback position, on Monday owner Jim Irsay and general manager Chris Ballard fi… → Read More
The Niners’ Offense Is Cruising — Until Kyle Shanahan Runs Out Of Scripted Plays
The Niners struggle when they go off-script. → Read More
NFL Offense Is Dead — But It’s Unlikely Two-High Coverage Is The Guilty Party
It’s almost November, and NFL offenses still can’t find the end zone. That may not sound terribly surprising to anyone who’s watched the Denver Broncos play thr… → Read More
The Ravens Should Have Gone For It
Stop me if you’ve heard this one: An NFL head coach decides to go for it on fourth down in a big, closely fought game. The team fails the attempt and goes on to… → Read More
The Best Red Zone Teams Are The Ones That Get There
It doesn’t take a degree in Advanced Footballology to know that marching down the field and then scoring in the red zone leads to wins. Conversely, a team that … → Read More
The New York Giants’ Perfect Start Is Unexpected. So Is Their Play-Calling.
The New York Giants are one of just six undefeated teams left in the NFL, perched atop the NFC East alongside the 2-0 Philadelphia Eagles. Yet despite being unb… → Read More
Which NFL Running Backs Got The Best Chances In Week 1?
Which ball-carriers are true lead backs? → Read More
Our NFC Projections Foresee a Battle of the Bays
In the 18 Super Bowls played between 2002 and 2019, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots represented the AFC in exactly half of them. Brady switched conferenc… → Read More
Our AFC Projections Are Bullish On The Bills
After two straight Super Bowl wins by NFC teams, the AFC is primed to strike back in 2022. The West is stacked with dangerous gunslingers on every team, the Nor… → Read More
Why Daniel Jones Might Make A Leap — And Why Trey Lance Might Not
With the NFL season nearly upon us, every player in football is out to prove something. Some are battling for starting jobs or trying to validate the hype aroun… → Read More
The Browns’ Bet On Deshaun Watson Was Doomed From The Start
The Browns’ reckless bet on quarterback Deshaun Watson is a failure. Desperate to change the team’s trajectory after just three winning seasons in the past 20 y… → Read More
Can A Model Beat The Markets At Forecasting The NFL Draft?
There's more uncertainty than expected awaiting the first round. → Read More
NFL General Managers Still Love The Senior Bowl. But Do Those Players Pan Out?
Spring is a season of tumult for the NFL. Team rosters are in flux as free agency reshuffles veteran talent across the league. Schemes are torn down and rebuilt… → Read More
The Los Angeles Rams’ Homegrown Stars Made The Difference In Super Bowl LVI
Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald saved the game -- and the season -- for L.A. → Read More
We Can Help With Your Bitcoin-Themed Super Bowl Prop Bet
For our next Super Bowl prop bet, we take on bitcoin. → Read More