Nate Silver
FiveThirtyEight
New York, NY, United States
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Past articles by Nate:
2023 March Madness Predictions
FiveThirtyEight’s men’s and women’s NCAA Tournament forecasting models calculate the chance of each team reaching each round. → Read More
The Model Always Had Its Doubts About The Red Wave
In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? → Read More
How Our 2022 Midterm Forecasts Performed
Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of h… → Read More
Will Trump Win The Republican Nomination, Much Less The Presidency?
On Tuesday night, former President Donald Trump announced his plans to run for president in 2024. And while he has kept a tight grip on the GOP since 2016, his … → Read More
Why DeSantis Is A Major Threat To Trump’s Reelection
The case for Donald Trump as the front-runner for the 2024 Republican nomination is incredibly obvious. As my colleague Nathaniel Rakich pointed out after the f… → Read More
Who Will Have The Advantage In The Georgia Runoff?
This weekend, Nevada’s Senate race was projected for Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, ensuring Democrats will keep their majority in the chamber. In this instal… → Read More
Candidate Quality Mattered
On Monday, I wrote about my three key questions heading into Election Day. I’ll address the first two — about polling error and turnout — at length once results… → Read More
The Pollsters Seem To Have Had A Good Night
In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their “Model Talk” hats on and discuss the initial resul… → Read More
2022 Election: Live Analysis and Results
Yeah, at the risk of using a cliche, that 13th District call is a little bit of a game-changer. If Democrats can pick off some of the “likely Republican” seats,… → Read More
2022 Election: Live Analysis and Results
That quick call for Bennet — and Hassan’s strong results in New Hampshire so far — really mitigate against “red tsunami” scenarios. Democrats may have a fairly … → Read More
Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started
When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 percent chance of taking over the Senate from Democrats, and an 87 percent chance of tak… → Read More
The 3 Big Questions I Still Have About Election Day
With less than 24 hours to go until we freeze our model, we’re probably not going to see a lot more changes in the topline forecast. Republicans have a 54 perce… → Read More
The Case For A Democratic Surprise On Election Night
Earlier this week, I spoke with Nathan Redd, a “friend” of mine (actually, a fragment of my alter ego) who attempted to convince me that Republicans will do eve… → Read More
How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model?
FiveThirtyEight’s midterms forecast continues to show Democrats and Republicans in a dead heat Senate race, with Republicans taking a very slight advantage. Rec… → Read More
The Case For A Republican Sweep On Election Night
Republicans reached a milestone on Tuesday, surpassing a 50 percent chance of a Senate takeover in our Deluxe forecast for the first time since July 25. Still, … → Read More
Where Our Model Thinks The Polls Might Be Biased
With less than two weeks until Election Day, Republicans now have a 48 percent chance of taking the Senate, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, thei… → Read More
Why I’m Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up
The Senate started out as a toss-up when we launched our forecast in June — and after a summer in which political developments mostly played to Democrats’ favor… → Read More
Betting Markets Are Treating The Midterm Elections Like It’s A Presidential Election
For the past few weeks, we’ve been trying to figure out to what extent, if any, Republicans have regained ground in the race for control of Congress. And the an… → Read More
2022-23 NBA Predictions
FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. → Read More
Nevada Could Be Senate Republicans’ Ace In The Hole
On the surface, Nevada seems to validate the otherwise somewhat unsuccessful hypothesis of the 2002 book “The Emerging Democratic Majority.” Authors John Judis … → Read More