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Most of the Roanoke Valley caught a break from storms on Saturday, as one round went north of us and the other mostly slipped just south, and then most of Southwest Virginia caught a break on Sunday, as only a few spotty storms popped up, mostly near the North Carolina line. But another cold front pressing southeastward into our hot, humid air will trigger new chances of showers and storms both… → Read More
It doesn't look like much yet, but the National Hurricane Center has found enough of a closed circulation 400 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, to declare the existence of Tropical Depression 2 on this Friday evening. Over the next couple of days, this depression is expected to drift northwest and strengthen into Tropical Storm Bonnie, though likely to stay on the low end of… → Read More
The March heat wave in the Eastern U.S. (Roanoke, at 79 degrees on Thursday, joined scores of other cities setting record highs the past couple of days), a prolonged episode of flooding rains in Louisiana and neighboring states, and accumulating snow deep to the south in Mexico are all related to the same traffic-jam weather pattern that is now only slowly started to get flowing again. An… → Read More
UPDATE 1:50 PM: One more band of moderate to locally heavy snow is edging into the New River Valley from West Virginia. It is possible that this band will work even farther eastward, toward Roanoke, later in the afternoon or early evening, although the winds turning to northwest may create downslope flow that dries the band up at least some crossing the mountains. Locations under the heavier… → Read More
UPDATE 6AM, 1/22: As you perhaps have noticed, the much-discussed snowstorm has begun in the Roanoke and New River valleys. Snow is likely to continue a large part of today and through the night, with perhaps a few lulls. We'll be approaching a foot by early evening and likely well over it by morning, with a few more inches early Saturday. Many locations in and near the Roanoke/New River valleys… → Read More
The radar precipitation estimation map above for the past 24 hours tells the story. It's not perfect: It's actually rained a lot more in Roanoke than shown, the radar hasn't captured a lot of the low-cloud, thin-drop stuff that has filled gauges from 1.5 to a little more than 2 inches in the Roanoke area. And some of the red bullseye west of Raleigh may be a tad overdone. But the broad area of… → Read More
UPDATE 7:25 PM, 10/2: A broad area of rain, some of it heavy, over central North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina is expanding northward. It will reach Southside Virginia in the next couple of hours, and likely spread into much of the central and western parts of the state by the early morning hours of Saturday. We can expect to see 1-2 inches of additional rain, locally 3+, in the… → Read More
* Everything seems on track for rainfall of 2-6 inches, locally more, Friday into early Saturday. Keep an eye on national radar along the East Coast -- when you begin to see rain bands spreading west or northwest inland, that is when our rain event will be beginning, as the upper low begins to "negatively tilt" and lift moisture back inland. → Read More
Tuesday is another day under the Southeast U.S. heat dome for Southwest Virginia. Expect highs similar to or perhaps a degree or two warmer than Monday -- 92 was the high at Roanoke on Monday, 87 at Blacksburg. Roanoke's record June 16 high of 97 from 1957 probably will not be challenged, but Blacksburg's record high of 88 from 1994 has a very good chance of being equaled or exceeded. Blacksburg… → Read More
Rain is overspreading the region again this Tuesday evening as warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, surging ahead of a strong upper-level low-pressure system, overrun colder air trapped against the mountains. The temperature regime tonight and early Wednesday will be a bit unusual with warmer air near the ridgetops, especially south of Roanoke, while chilly dampness in the 30s and 40s… → Read More
A band of heavy rain and storms has been strengthening over far southwest Virginia (west of I-77) southward into the high country of North Carolina during the evening. This area of rain and storms is grudgingly edging eastward, and will slowly track across the remainder of Southwest Virginia overnight into Wednesday morning. Once it gets over any particular location, it will take several hours… → Read More
UPDATE 11:50 PM, 10/10: Chances of rain will pick up by Friday afternoon and evening as the first of several waves of moisture move through the region. Rain is not expected to be extremely heavy on the whole, but there may be some brief downpours and even a bit of thunder here and there. The biggest push of heavy rain is due around the middle of next week as a strong low-pressure and cold front… → Read More
I floated the "s-word" for the weekend on my blog post Thursday morning, but any flakiness will be minor and probably only on the highest ridgetops in West Virginia, maybe west of I-77 in Virginia and near the W.Va. border. Many more of us will have more likely weather concerns involving a few strong storms on Friday afternoon/evening and possibly some scattered frost on Sunday morning -- though… → Read More
Dry high pressure is taking full charge of the weather this weekend, and it will be fabulous. Lots of sunshine, highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s, lows mostly in the 50s (maybe a few upper 40s in outlying areas). There's not much more to say than that, except get out and enjoy it! → Read More
It's happening again. A cold front passing this evening without much fanfare will be the leading edge of influence from a high pressure system moving over the Great Lakes toward New England. On Friday and Saturday, the high pressure system over southern Canada and the northeast U.S. (depicted in map above late Saturday, when the high is a little offshore) will nose a relatively cool air mass southward… → Read More
UPDATE 12:10 AM, 9/12: The second paragraph still describes well what to expect Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The cold front has moved through, but it isn't going very far south of us before it stalls. END UPDATE → Read More
UPDATE MIDNIGHT, 9/11: Expect a warmer day today -- 80s for most -- with storms in the afternoon and evening as the much-advertised cold front begins pushing into the warmth and humidity. I plan to post on Thursday morning looking at the storms and cool air ahead. END UPDATE → Read More
Roanoke has had 17 90-degree days in 2014 -- about half of the historic average, dating back to 1912 (33.6 per year, to be more precise), but exactly as many as we had in 2013. If it doesn't hit 90 again on Friday or Saturday, I think we're probably done with 90ish stuff for the year. A cold front will push through this weekend that will trigger additional showers and storms -- there may be enough… → Read More
UPDATE 12:55 PM, 7/2: A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 8 p.m. for most of central and western Virginia, including the Roanoke and New River valleys and adjacent areas. The Storm Prediction Center says there is a 70 percent chance of 10 or more high-wind events occurring in the highlighted region during the duration of the watch. Heat and humidity are providing a large amount of fuel… → Read More
UPDATE 11:05 AM, 7/1: Tropical Storm Arthur has been named by the National Hurricane Center, off the east coast of Florida. END UPDATE → Read More